Posted on November 8, 2023
The AFC West, on the other hand, sees all four teams entering Week 10 off wins in their prior game.
For my picks for the entire NFL, I went 10-4 with an 8-5-1 mark against the spread and a 6-6-2 over/under totals.
Season-long, I’m 86-50 overall, 74-59-2 ATS, and 77-54-5 O/U.
Below are my Week 10 Power Rankings for the eight teams with a quick look at the upcoming week’s matchups and my game picks.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) ◄►
Dolphins ReviewThe Chiefs rebounded from their loss to Denver with a big win in Germany over Miami.
It gives Kansas City a win over two of the top contenders in the AFC with victories over the Dolphins and Jaguars.
Patrick Mahomes did not have his best game ever, but certainly looked better than he did against Denver, when he was battling the flu.
KC receivers lead the NFL with 18 dropped passes this season but looked a bit better against the Dolphins. Most of the issues in this one were caused by the Miami front seven getting pressure on Mahomes.
The real difference-maker for the Chiefs continues to be the defense. The defense is playing at a championship caliber and couple that with a normal Patrick Mahomes, and this could be the best team in the NFL.
The Chiefs will have an extra week off to recover from the added travel that goes with a game in Germany.
The extra time will be used to get ready for a Super Bowl rematch—and a potential preview of this year’s—with Philadelphia. The Eagles will also enjoy a bye this week.
2. San Francisco 49ers (5-3) ▲1
BYE Week ReviewThe 49ers are reeling, having lost three in a row.
The bye week offered a chance to get things moving back in the right direction. Despite the recent struggles they still sit tied for the NFC West lead with Seattle at 5-3.
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
Sunday, November 12
10:00 am PT, Fox
The bye week came at a good time for the 49ers, but the opponents continue to be tough.
San Francisco will have to travel to Jacksonville to face the red-hot Jaguars who have won their last five in a row and enter the week 6-2 on the season.
These teams come out of their byes going in different directions for sure. The 49ers need to bounce back in this one and I think they will.
Brock Purdy is going through the first rough patch of his career; the Jags are giving up a lot of passing yards and opponents are completing almost 63% of their passes.
Look for a bounce-back game for Purdy and the new-look defense of the Niners to fluster Trevor Lawrence and create pressure.
My Pick: 49ers 24, Jaguars 20
[Advice: The 49ers are favored by three on the road, I think they will cover that just barely. The total is set at 45 and I think it will stay under it by a point.]
3. Seattle Seahawks (5-3) ▼1
Ravens ReviewThe Ravens have the best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing just 13.8 points per game. It’s Baltimore’s best mark in that category in the first nine weeks of a season since its historic 2000 defense.
That is a high comparison, and the Seahawks felt the full wrath of that defense on Sunday.
Geno Smith had the worst game of his time in Seattle, completing just 46% of his passes and throwing his sixth interception in the last four games.
Smith also lost a fumble and threw for just 157 yards in the loss. His offensive line did him no favors, either, as Baltimore had four sacks and pressured Smith throughout.
The Seahawks had a chance to set the town against a top team and laid an egg.
Washington Commanders Preview
Sunday, November 12
1:25 pm PT, Fox
Seattle will get Washington this week. The Commanders have been up and down but are coming off a win over New England last week.
Washington has struggled to run the ball and the offensive line has not been great this season, although they did put in a stellar performance against the Patriots.
The Seahawks have struggled against the run when playing some of the best running teams in the league but have looked good against the run when playing average running teams.
Washington is certainly not among the top running teams in the league. The Commanders’ defense has shown signs of shining this season but also has struggled.
And they unloaded their pass rushers at the trade deadline. This one will play into Seattle’s hands on both sides of the ball and even if Smith struggles again the Seahawks should be in good shape.
My Pick: Seahawks 23, Commanders 14
[Advice: The Seahawks are favored by 6.5 in this one and I think they will cover that. The over/under is set at 45.5 and I don’t see this one getting close to challenging that number.]
4. Los Angeles Chargers (4-4) ◄►
Jets ReviewThe Chargers are back to .500 at 4-4 on the season. Los Angeles beat the Jets with defense and special teams.
The offense once again had its struggles. The Jets’ defense is good, but this is simply too talented of a unit to be struggling like they are in week nine.
New York got to Justin Herbert. Where the offense may have had some struggles, Joey Bosa and the defense were in prime form.
Bosa had 2.5 sacks, forced a fumble, and scooped up a loose ball, becoming the fourth player to record 2.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery in a game in the past five seasons.
All told, the defense got to Zach Wilson eight times on Monday night.
Detroit Lions Preview
Sunday, November 12
1:05 pm PT, CBS
The Chargers have won four of their last six games, but the win over the Jets was their first this season over a team with a winning record.
The Lions are 6-2 entering this week’s matchup in Los Angeles. While the Jets winning record may have been a bit of a misnomer, there is nothing misleading about Detroit’s record.
The Lions are a very good football team. The Chargers defense will need to apply the same pressure they did in New York and the offense will need to produce.
The Lions are coming off a bye week and should be able to leave California with their seventh win of the season.
My Pick: Lions 30, Chargers 24
[Advice: The Lions are only 1.5-point favorites on the road, and I look for them to cover that with ease. The total is set at 49 and this one will climb past that.]
5. Denver Broncos (3-5) ▲1
BYE Week ReviewThe Broncos got a win over Kansas City prior to the bye as they broke a 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs.
Denver figured out that the run game is the strength of the offense in that win and hopefully, they remembered that during the off-week.
Buffalo Bills Preview
Monday, November 13
5:15 pm PT, ABC/ESPN
It is a Monday nighter at Buffalo with a long break to get ready for it. The Bills are tough to beat at home and on a Monday Night it might be too much for the Broncos team to overcome.
These Bills is not the Bills of the past few seasons though. They are vulnerable and will enter with a 5-4 mark after their Sunday night loss to the Bengals.
Denver will need to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage if they hope to spring the upset. Russell Wilson has to be a game manager and not turn the ball over.
If the veteran QB can accept that role Denver could make a run late in the season. I don’t think that run will start in Buffalo though. The Bills will win this one.
My Pick: Bills 26, Broncos 14
[Advice: The Bills are favored by eight at home and I think they will cover that. The total is set at 46 and I don’t think the Broncos will score enough to go over that number.]
6. Las Vegas Raiders (4-5) ▲1
Giants ReviewThe Raiders were the only team in the league that had failed to score over 21 points through the first eight weeks of the season.
That cost Josh McDaniels his job, and in the first game under Antonio Pierce and Bo Hardegree as offensive coordinator, the Raiders exploded for 30 points.
Now it was the Giants, yes, but the Raiders have put up clunkers against bad teams this season. Aidan O’Connell got his first home start of his career and was up to the task.
Was the rookie great? No, but he was error-free and played with confidence. He has been named the starter moving forward and may give this team its best chance to win.
The run defense struggled some allowing yardage but kept New York off the scoreboard for three quarters. The 30-6 win was a dominant performance for the Raiders and their new Head Man.
New York Jets Preview
Sunday, November 12
5:20 pm PT, NBC
The Raiders next outing will be a primetime affair against the Jets. New York is coming off a terrible loss to the Chargers at home. In that loss, the Jets line could not keep Zach Wilson upright.
New York’s offense is in shambles at the moment. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are about all they have. The Jets’ defense is very good and will make things difficult on the Raiders’ offense.
Las Vegas is the better team in this one and is playing better at the moment. The Raiders have been playing well at home this season where they are 3-1.
The defense will get to Zach Wilson often and the offense will do just enough to win.
My Pick: Raiders 20, Jets 14
[Advice: I’ve seen this line fluctuate early between Vegas +2.5 to +1.5… The point is the early money is on Vegas and follows the money. The Raiders should be the favorite in this one. The total is at 36.5, take the under.]
7. Los Angeles Rams (3-6) ▼2
Packers ReviewThe Rams played without Matthew Stafford, and it was not pretty. Los Angeles lost for the third straight game at Green Bay, and it was a performance that is not worth remembering.
The offense looked lost with Brett Rypien at QB. He completed just 13 of 28 passes for 130 yards and was picked off. The offense failed to gain more than 100 yards in either half.
In the first half, the Rams had three consecutive drives without a pass completion. L.A.’s defense was able to create some takeaways, but the offense came up empty on all of them.
L.A. enters their bye week reeling, the only saving grace is that the rest of the NFC West is also in a tailspin at the moment.
The next time the Rams hit the field will be against Seattle as they will look for the season sweep of their division rivals. If the Rams are to get that win, they will need to figure things out on offense during the off-week.
8. Arizona Cardinals (1-8) ◄►
Browns ReviewArizona has now lost six in a row, and for one of the few times this season, they were beaten soundly and were completely overmatched.
The 27-0 loss was their first time being shutout since 2018. The offense was only able to produce 58 yards against the Browns. It was the fewest yards by a Cardinals team in more than 50 years.
Cleveland ended up running 71 plays on offense during the game, more than the yardage put up by Arizona. That is how bad this one was.
Clayton Tune is not the answer at QB, but there is plenty of blame to go around after that loss. The offensive line was bad and created no running room.
A bright spot was the run defense that held the Browns to 113 yards rushing after Cleveland entered the contest totaling 148.6 per game.
Atlanta Falcons Preview
Sunday, November 12
1:05 pm PT, CBS
Kyler Murray will be back this week against the Falcons and that will be a boost for the offense.
Atlanta is coming off a loss to Minnesota at the hands of Joshua Dobbs and his five days in Minnesota after coming from Arizona.
The Falcons are not a great team but are playing for a division crown only one game behind the Saints in the NFC South. Atlanta has more to play for at this point and Kyler Murray will have a ton of rust to work off.
This one points in favor of the Falcons.
My Pick: Falcons 21, Cardinals 16
[Advice: The Falcons are favored by one, they will cover that. The point total is 42 and this one stays low.]
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