Posted on January 8, 2024
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The Mountain West conference slate kicked off last week, and while I questioned the league’s depth a week ago, it looks like we could still see a handful of teams capable of winning the regular season.
Utah State took care of Colorado State in Logan and certainly looks like they could be for real this season.
After one week it appears that any of the top six teams in the league could knock off anyone.
Here are my Week Two power rankings for the Mountain West.
1. San Diego State Aztecs (13-2, 2-0) ▲1
San Diego State opened up conference play with a 2-0 week. The first of the two wins was in dominant fashion over Fresno State and they capped off the week with an 11-point win over UNLV.The defense clamped down for the Aztecs as they limited their two opponents last week to just 54.0 points per game on 37.2% from the floor.
Jaedon LeDee continues to lead the Conference in scoring with 21.4 per game and is second in rebounding with 8.7 per outing.
Last week, he averaged 20.5 points per game and collected his seventh double-double of the season against UNLV, tied for the 15th most in the nation and most among Mountain West players.
This week it will be a pair of road trips for the Aztecs with visits to San Jose State and New Mexico on deck.
Against the Spartans, SDSU will have an edge on the glass as San Jose State has struggled this season to rebound effectively.
The trip to the Pit will be a tricky one on Saturday. San Diego State’s defense will be tested by an offense averaging 82.9 points per game.
2. Nevada Wolf Pack (14-1, 1-0) ▲1
Nevada had one game in the opening week of conference play, and they dispatched Fresno State with ease on the road.The win got them their 14th win of the season, tied with five other teams for the most wins in the nation this season. Nevada is three-for-three in true road games on the season.
The defense stepped up against the Bulldogs as Nevada blocked four shots and forced 11 turnovers. The Wolf Pack forced a turnover on 22.3% of Fresno State possessions.
The 14-1 start for Nevada is tied for the program’s best record through 15 games of a season. Jarod Lucas has reached double figures in every game this season.
Week Two will feature a trip to Air Force and a visit from Boise State. The Pack has a good chance to open 3-0 in conference play.
They should be able to leave the state of Colorado with a win and Boise State is a very tough team but getting them in Reno rather than making the trip to Boise is big.
Boise State is averaging 80.0 points per game at home this season and just 66.6 on the road.
Nevada leads the league in scoring defense this season allowing just 63.9 points per game.
3. Utah State Aggies (14-1, 2-0) ▲2
In knocking off Colorado State, the Aggies collected their first win over a ranked opponent since 2020 and first at home since 2019.It was also the 13th straight win for Utah State, which stands as the second longest active streak in the nation trailing only unbeaten Houston’s 14 wins in a row.
The win also improved the Aggies to 2-0 in conference play after their 28-point win over Air Force in the opener.
Great Osobor has certainly lived up to his name all season and especially in the last week. In fact, he has been simply great!
Osobor averaged 26 points and 11.5 rebounds in the two wins. Against Colorado State he finished with 20 and 14 to collect his seventh double-double of the season, tied for the most in the MW.
The job Danny Sprinkle has done with the Aggies in the first half of the season has been phenomenal considering what this roster looked like in the offseason.
It is an opportunity to open conference play 4-0 with Wyoming coming to Logan mid-week and a trip to UNLV on Saturday afternoon.
The Aggies are averaging 81.5 points per game this season and 82.5 in their first two conference games. UNLV and Wyoming have both allowed at least 72 points in all of their MW games so far.
4. Colorado State Rams (13-2, 1-1) ▼3
The Rams opened Mountain West play with a big win at home over New Mexico. Game two of the week did not go as well as the 13th-ranked team in the nation fell at Utah State.In the loss to the Aggies, it was missed bunnies that did them in. CSU missed 13 layups in the five-point loss.
The Rams are seventh in the nation this season shooting 65.7% on non-blocked two-point field goals. That number dipped to 57.9% against USU.
This week it is just one game on tap for the Rams, but it is not an easy one. It will be a road trip to Boise State, where the Broncos have won 21 straight on their home floor.
If the Rams can clean up the misses underneath, they could be in good shape.
Boise State opponents are shooting 54.4% on non-blocked twos, which ranks 136th defensively in the nation. CSU is 20th in the nation with a conference-leading 15.6 fast break points per game.
In their nine-point win over San Jose State on Friday, BSU had a turnover rate of 21.6%. If the Rams can create the same kind of pressure, they could get in transition quickly.
5. New Mexico Lobos (13-2, 1-1) ▼1
Tthe Lobos went 1-1 in the first week of conference play. New Mexico dropped a tough one in Fort Collins before getting a home-court win over Wyoming on Saturday night.In the loss to Colorado State, JT Toppin ended with 17 points and 11 rebounds.
He became the first Lobo freshman with a double-double in his MW debut and his 17 points were the most by a UNM freshman in a conference opener since John Robinson II scored 24 points at Fresno State in the 1998-99 WAC opener.
New Mexico had 26 steals in the two games last week with 10 against CSU and 16 vs UW. The Lobos outscored UW 28-0 in points off turnovers.
The Lobos rank 10th in the nation with a steal on 13.4% of possessions, and their turnover margin of +6.3 per game is fourth in the nation.
This week brings a trip to UNLV ahead of the Saturday meeting with San Diego State. UNLV has done a good job of keeping the ball this season with a turnover rate of 15.0%.
The Rebels did turn it over on 20.3% of possessions in their most recent loss to SDSU.
6. Boise State Broncos (10-4, 1-0) ◄►
Boise State opened conference play with a win at San Jose State last week.It was a contest the Broncos found themselves trailing by seven at the half before outscoring the Spartans by 16 after halftime.
This is the first time the Broncos have been 1-0 in conference play after a road game since 2018-19. The Broncos have a total rebound rate of 52.8% on the season and got 65.8% of the boards available in San Jose.
There are a pair of tough ones on the docket for this week with a visit from Colorado State ahead of a trip to Nevada.
Against the Rams, the Broncos will put their NCAA-leading and program-record 21-game win streak at ExtraMile Arena on the line. BSU has not lost a home game in over 424 days.
Boise State will need to get more from their bench as the Conference season heats up. The Broncos are 251st in the nation with 17.8 bench points per game.
Against SJSU, all 78 of the Broncos’ points came from the quartet of O’Mar Stanley, Tyson Dagenhart, Chibuzo Agbo, and Max Rice.
7. Wyoming Cowboys (8-7, 1-1) ▲2
Wyoming ran their home record to 5-1 with their conference-opening win over San Jose State before falling in game two of the week at New Mexico.In the win over the Spartans, the Cowboys erased a 17-point deficit. It was the largest comeback win for Wyoming since a 17-point come-from-behind win against UNLV in 2016.
This week it will be a trip to Utah State before a visit from Fresno State. The Pokes should be able to get the win over Fresno State but the trip to Logan could be daunting.
The matchup with the Aggies will feature the top three-point shooting team in the conference and the top three-point defense in the league.
Wyoming is shooting a MW-best 38.8% from beyond the arc while USU is limiting opponents to 27.4% on threes.
If the Cowboys can get good looks from deep and knock them down, they could make it interesting against Utah State. Fresno State is last in the conference defending the three.
8. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (7-6, 0-1) ▼1
The Rebels fell in their conference opener to San Diego State. UNLV fell behind 17-3 in the outing and could never get all the way back.In the second half the Rebels played the Aztecs virtually even. 31.9% of the Aztecs points came from the FT line as UNLV was outscored by 16 from the stripe.
This season UNLV is getting called for a foul on 23.2% of possessions. The Rebels were effective at forcing turnovers against the Aztecs with a turnover forced rate of 24.6%, they now have a season rate of 18.9%.
This week it is a pair of home games against New Mexico and Utah State. It is certainly a tough stretch to open league play for UNLV. Week Two will feature trips to BSU and CSU.
The opening five games are daunting, but the Rebels need to get wins in some of them if they want to have any shot at being a factor in the MW. The two at home this week are the ones they need to look to.
9. San Jose State Spartans (7-8, 0-2) ▼1
The conference opener did not go the way the Spartans wanted at all with a two-point loss at Wyoming. They followed that up with a loss at home to Boise State.MJ Amey went for 30 in the loss to the Broncos, with 25 of them coming in the opening half. The Spartans went quiet in the second half as a team as they watched a seven-point lead turn into a nine-point loss.
SJSU was out-rebounded by 20 to BSU after out-rebounding Wyoming by four.
This season the Spartans have not been good enough on the glass. Their total rebound rate of 46.6% is 300th in the nation.
The two games this week are at home vs. San Diego State and a trip to Air Force.
The San Diego State contest will be a rough one. The Aztecs are playing well right now, the Spartans are not. The trip to Air Force is a winnable game and if the Spartans drop that one then they could be in for a long season.
10. Air Force Falcons (7-6, 0-1) ◄►
The Falcons suffered through a 28-point loss to Utah State to open conference play. Air Force was outscored 52-34 in the paint and allowed the Aggies to shoot 62.9% from the floor.The Falcons rank 22nd in the nation with a blocked shot rate of 8.8% this season, but against USU, they only blocked 4.1% of Utah State’s shot attempts.
This week, Air Force travels to Nevada before a home game with San Jose State. Neither the Wolf Pack nor Spartans are getting many of their shots blocked this season.
Air Force has only beaten Nevada three times in 20 all-time meetings.
Against San Jose State the Falcons will have a rare advantage in the rebounding department. AFA is rebounding at a rate of 48.9% while San Jose State is at 46.6%
11. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-8, 0-2) ◄►
Fresno State opened with a pair of lopsided defeats in conference play last week. The Bulldogs are 6-1 this season when scoring at least 70 points.They did not get close to that figure in either loss to San Diego State or Nevada.
The Bulldogs averaged 52 points per game in the losses while allowing 73 per outing. Fresno State has been held below 60 points five times this season.
It is a lone game this week for Fresno State with only a trip to Wyoming on the schedule. The Bulldogs’ 68.8 points per game this season is tied for 299th in the nation.
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