No. 8 Arizona at Washington State

Saturday, January 13
3:00 pm PT, Pac-12 Network

After getting blown out in their last road game, the Wildcats are looking to prove they can create their own energy away from McKale Center.

Washington State is a strong rebounding team and an elite shot-blocking group. Kyle Smith’s roster tops the Pac-12 in blocked shots per game, entering the matchup at No. 17 nationally.

The Cougs take care of the ball, too. Smith’s group is tied for first in the Conference with just 11 turnovers committed per game.

But this is the strongest defense Wazzu has faced this season.

The Wildcats are No. 4 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric and top the league in turnovers forced per game.

The Cats are No. 23 nationally in steals per contest, getting it done through high-intensity effort with a focus on staying attached to opposing players.

One of the few flaws of Lloyd’s defense, though, is defending the three. Too many open looks are given up when opponents run screens along the perimeter that force a big to come out to defend a guard.

Other well-coached opponents have tested UA’s perimeter switching by using ball movement designed to create confusion among the defenders.

But Washington State is just a middle-of-the-road three-point shooting team, coming into the game No. 180 nationally in three-point percentage.

To pull off the upset, the Cougars might have to get hot from three and keep Arizona off the offensive glass.

California at Oregon

Saturday, January 13
5:00 pm PT, Pac-12 Network

Reports out of Eugene indicate that star big N’Faly Dante could be returning for the matchup against California.

Dana Altman has managed his absence skillfully, but his return would be a significant boost for a team that has been lacking firepower down low.

Even so, the Ducks have been hitting on all cylinders. With a 4-0 start to conference play, an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament is a growing possibility.

At the same time, California is full of confidence after beating UCLA and Colorado in back-to-back games. Guard Jaylon Tyson is scary-efficient and is fresh off a 30-point night that saw him shoot 66 percent from the field.

The Bears have a capable option inside, too. Fardaws Aimaq is second on the team in scoring and averages a double-double with 10.6 rebounds per game.

The Cal supporting cast is respectable, as well, with a mixture of guards that can score and forwards that do damage outside of the paint.

In other words, Oregon would be unwise to overlook this matchup.

To defend home court, Altman’s team must limit its turnovers and win the rebounding margin.

Defending the perimeter could loom large, too. Jalen Cone averages 9.9 three-point shots per game and has the green light to shoot every possession.

If the Bears are even moderately efficient from deep, the game could be close in the second half.

On the other hand, California is dead-last in the Pac-12 in three-point percentage defense and the Ducks tend to get it going beyond the arc at Matthew Knight Arena.

USC at Colorado

Saturday, January 13
7:00 pm PT, ESPN2

Andy Enfield’s team could get exposed on defense.

The Buffs have a capable big in Eddie Lampkin Jr. and there’s no clear answer on the USC roster.

The senior center is fresh off a career game against California and must be grinning preparing for the Trojan frontcourt.

Joshua Morgan is too skinny to give him issues and the backup bigs are too raw to see extended minutes. The group is a strong shot-blocking unit, but Lampkin is a problem at 6-foot-11 and 265 pounds.

At the same time, KJ Simpson and Tristan da Silva are two of the top players in the entire Pac-12.

Simpson can be unstoppable when his shot starts falling and CU is No. 10 nationally in three-point percentage.

Compounding the situation, the Buffs have been on the road for three straight contests and finally return home.

It’s a perfect storm that reeks of a potential blowout.

For USC to pull off the upset, it must defend the three and limit turnovers.

Isaiah Collier will be out for several weeks and his shooting efficiency will be missed. But the freshman tended to make mistakes.

His 3.6 turnovers per game created issues and now the offense figures to run more exclusively through Boogie Ellis.

That result could be fewer mistakes and fewer fast break points allowed.

Even so, the key is arguably Kobe Johnson. The guard is a high-volume shooter who’s only averaging 39.7 percent from the field.

The junior makes USC better when he facilitates the offense and finds his teammates for open looks. He went 3-for-10 against Washington State earlier this week including 0-4 from deep.

Enfield can’t afford inefficient nights from his guards and the team’s chances arguably ride on whether or not Johnson can connect on his opportunities.

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Dane Miller’s Game Picks

2023-24 Week 3 Pac-12 Games	Pick
Arizona at Washington State Jan 12, 3:00 PM	Arizona
California at Oregon Jan 12, 5:00 PM	Oregon
USC at Colorado Jan 12, 7:00 PM	Colorado
Overall Record	114-44-0 (72%)