Mark Schmor's Week Six College Football Top 25

Posted on October 6, 2021


  By Mark Schmor, SuperWest Sports

Week Five continued to be a week of chaos and upheaval as a top 5 Oregon team lost to unranked Stanford and a top 10 Florida team lost to unranked Kentucky—and neither result felt particularly shocking.

To this point, I’ve tried to build these rankings almost exclusively on what a team has done on the field.

Now that everybody has played at least a couple decent opponents, I’m going to use these rankings to evaluate what a team has done, but also to peek down the road and see what their long-term prognosis might be.

Here’s how I make sense of the current landscape.

No. 1 — Alabama (5-0)

No. 2 — Georgia (5-0)

First Georgia rolled to a 37-0 win over a top 10 Arkansas team. Then Alabama jumped out to a 28-0 halftime lead over a top 15 Ole Miss team on their way to a 42-21 victory.

Last week I thought these were the two best teams in the country by a wide margin.

Now I think that margin is significantly wider. They are the favorites to meet in the SEC Championship Game and right now I would expect them to stage a rematch in the National Championship.

I’m going to continue making this prediction for the next eight weeks in the hope that the football gods will give us a couple crazy SEC upsets and I’ll look like a fool for having so much confidence in these two teams.

But for right now, I think there’s a bigger gap between No. 2 and No. 3 than between No. 3 and No. 25.

No. 3 — Iowa (5-0)

No. 4 — Penn State (5-0)

No. 5 — Michigan (5-0)

No. 6 — Michigan State (5-0)

The SEC may have the two best teams, but the Big Ten has proven itself to be the deepest conference. Just look at this past weekend:

I thought Iowa might be vulnerable on the road on a Friday night against Taulia Tagovailoa’s Terrapins. Then the Hawkeyes forced 7 turnovers and beat Maryland 51-14.

I thought Penn State might get a scare from an Indiana team who beat them last year in a thriller. Then the Nittany Lions rolled to a 24-0 win.

I thought Michigan might have some issues moving the ball against a Wisconsin team that has embarrassed them the last two seasons. Then the Wolverines steamrolled the Badgers 38-17.

Michigan State was the only team in this quartet that didn’t play a serious opponent, but they still jumped out to a 42-16 halftime lead over Western Kentucky before cruising to a 48-31 win.

If somebody is able to survive the Big Ten schedule with an unblemished record, I’ll be very surprised. Keeping in mind that most of these teams also will have to deal with Ohio State at some point, I expect the Big Ten to be a bloodbath.

It already has been a bloodbath for the likes of Wisconsin and Indiana, two preseason top 20 teams that are both 0-2 in conference play and needing to do some serious work just to qualify for a bowl game.

The bloodletting will continue this coming weekend when Penn State travels to Iowa.

No. 7 — Cincinnati (4-0)

No. 8 — BYU (5-0)

With Cincinnati’s 24-13 win over a top 10 Notre Dame team, the Bearcats’ chances for a playoff spot became much stronger.

If the Irish can maintain a strong ranking throughout the rest of the season, this is the type of signature win that could resonate with the CFP committee come December.

At some point, we may need to start entertaining a similar scenario for BYU. They picked up a 34-20 win over a pretty good Utah State team. This week they will host a pretty good Boise State team.

As long as BYU keeps beating pretty good teams, I think we have to take them seriously as a playoff party crasher.

No. 9 — Oklahoma State (5-0)

No. 10 — Oklahoma (5-0)

It’s weird to say this about a Big 12 team, but Oklahoma State’s defense is good. Really good. The dominance of their defense made their 24-14 win over Baylor feel more convincing than the score indicated.

This came after their defense was the difference-maker in wins over Kansas State and Boise State.

The Cowboys need to be taken seriously because of that defense, but they won’t keep this ranking unless they figure out a way to get a little more out of their offense.

There have been some lingering questions about Oklahoma’s offense, too, but those questions are less urgent after the Sooners posted a 37-31 win over a very good defensive team in Kansas State.

Spencer Rattler was an efficient 22-of-25 for 243 yards and two touchdowns. If Spencer Rattler continues to complete 88% of his passes, I think the Oklahoma offense will be in good hands.

With these two being the last two undefeated teams from the Big 12, will Bedlam be a preview of the Big 12 Championship? That may depend on what Texas still has to say. The Longhorns meet the Sooners in Dallas this Saturday for the Red River Showdown.

No. 11 — Wake Forest (5-0)

No. 12 — Kentucky (5-0)

I’m putting Kentucky and Wake Forest together here because they are both off to surprising 5-0 starts, but I don’t see them in a similar light.

Kentucky needed a dramatic goal line stand in the final minutes to upset No. 10 Florida 20-13 . It was a huge win for the program, and I’m guessing they are still partying in Lexington.

Yet this is also the same Kentucky team that almost lost to Chattanooga and I have little confidence that they will be able to hang with Georgia on October 16. I’ll keep them here as long as they’re unbeaten, but I don’t expect that to be long.

Wake Forest is a different story. They survived a thriller against Louisville with a 37-34 win, but there is nothing flukey about their 5-0 start.

I think there’s a decent chance Wake Forest could end up winning the ACC. I’m going to leave the Demon Deacons here as long as they’re unbeaten, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that first loss doesn’t come for a while.

No. 13 — Oregon (4-1)

No. 14 — Ohio State (4-1)

Ok, I fully recognize my Oregon bias in keeping the Ducks at No. 13 after their 31-24 overtime loss to Stanford, even if AP voters have them at No. 8.

It’s just that I’m trying to keep these rankings consistent by relying on head-to-head results and Oregon still has that head-to-head win over Ohio State.

If Oregon loses again in the Pac-12 (which they very well could) and if Ohio State runs the table (which they very well could), the Buckeyes will surely overtake the Ducks at some point.

(Yes, I have a lot more to say about the Oregon game, but I’ve written those comments in a separate post out of respect for anyone who is only interested in the rankings).

Regarding Ohio State, it also has to be noted that they looked really good in a 52-13 win over Rutgers. They looked significantly better than Michigan looked the week before in a 20-13 win over Rutgers.

But it was still just a win over Rutgers. Ohio State won’t get into the heart of their schedule for several more weeks.

No. 15 — Arkansas (4-1)

No. 16 — Auburn (4-1)

No. 17 — Ole Miss (3-1)

It says something about how brutal the SEC West is that a preseason top 5 team like Texas A&M and a preseason top 20 team like LSU aren’t even included with this trio.

We’ve already mentioned Arkansas getting hammered by Georgia and Ole Miss getting hammered by Alabama.

I kept Arkansas above the others because their win over Texas looks pretty good right now and there’s still an outside chance the Razorbacks can challenge for the division title by upsetting Alabama.

Auburn almost got dropped from my rankings when they needed a late comeback to escape an upset from Georgia State. But Auburn showed me something by going into LSU and coming out with a win.

Their reward is a visit from Georgia. I’ll be curious if they can better Arkansas’ effort and keep the margin under 37 points.

Ole Miss essentially lost any hope of winning the division by losing to Alabama and their best win remains their season opener over Louisville.

However, Ole Miss hosts the Razorbacks on Saturday, so that will give us a good indicator of how they compare to one another.

No. 18 — Notre Dame (4-1)

No. 19 — Texas (4-1)

I’d believe just about anything with Notre Dame going forward. If you told me they beat Virginia Tech this week and just kept on winning, I’d believe you.

If you told me they lost to Virginia Tech this week and then lost to USC and North Carolina to go winless in October, I’d believe you.

The Irish did manage to make things interesting against Cincinnati. After falling behind 17-0, they rallied to make it a 17-13 game midway through the fourth quarter.

There’s a toughness to this team that could find a way to keep grinding out ugly wins. I just have a few doubts.

Texas posted a 32-27 win over TCU, which is no small feat as TCU had won seven of nine against Texas since joining the Big 12 conference.

Now the Longhorns look ahead to an Oklahoma team that has beaten them in nine of their last 12 meetings. If Steve Sarkisian’s group can exorcise some of those demons as well, Texas could be a serious candidate to win the Big 12.

No. 20 — Arizona State (4-1)

No. 21 — Oregon State (4-1)

Arizona State routed UCLA 42-23 and staked its claim as the clear favorite to win the Pac-12 South.

The Sun Devils aren’t exactly a feel-good story with all the offseason drama circulating around the program, but they showed off the type of speed and athleticism that led many to name them a sleeper in the conference race before the season started.

After losing its season opener to Purdue, Oregon State has rattled off four-straight wins including a throttling of USC in the Coliseum last week and a last-second game winning field goal to beat Washington this week.

If I told Beaver fans they’d have wins over USC and Washington in their first five games, they would have lost their minds.

If I told Husky fans or USC fans that they would watch their unranked teams lose to Oregon State, they would have lost their minds too.

No. 22 — Coastal (5-0)

No. 23 — SMU (5-0)

No. 24 — UTSA (5-0)

Coastal Carolina continues to look like an elite team against less-than-elite competition. They beat Louisiana-Monroe 59-6. It’s their second straight win by 50 points or more.

SMU beat South Florida 41-17 and has now emerged as the leading challenger to Cincinnati in the AAC.

They could do Cincinnati a huge favor by keeping their undefeated record intact as long as possible, giving the Bearcats a chance for another signature win in late November.

UTSA escaped with a 24-17 win over winless UNLV. That would normally be a red flag but a week before we saw Fresno State struggle to beat UTSA and that wasn’t a red flag for them…

Wait, Fresno State lost to Hawaii a week after struggling to beat UNLV? And that came after I stubbornly kept Fresno ahead of Ohio State in these rankings? Let’s move on.

No. 25 — North Carolina State (4-1)

North Carolina State beat Louisiana Tech 34-27 to avoid a letdown after the big Clemson win. Struggling to beat LaTech is nothing to be ashamed of this year.

Mississippi State needed a crazy fourth-quarter comeback and SMU needed a Hail Mary to do the same thing.

Nevertheless, I’m still not sure how seriously to take NC State as a contender to actually win the ACC, even though they’ve already claimed a win over Clemson.

Two teams worth noting: Florida (3-2) and Clemson (3-2)

Florida fell to 3-2 with an uninspiring 20-13 loss to Kentucky. At this point, the best thing Florida has done was to lose a close game to Alabama, which is saying something because nobody else has played Alabama competitively.

Clemson improved to 3-2 with an uninspiring 19-13 win over a Boston College team that was missing their star quarterback.

At this point, the best thing Clemson has done was lose a close game to Georgia, which is saying something because nobody else has played Georgia competitively.

Both of these teams have the talent to finish 10-2 and I’d be shocked if either finished worse than 9-3 so we’ll continue to keep an eye on them.

Two more teams worth noting: San Diego State (4-0) and Wyoming (4-0)

Both of these Mountain West teams had a bye this week, and as you can see, they both carry an undefeated record. We’re now at the point in the season where anybody with a zero in the loss column has to be taken somewhat seriously.

San Diego State has already claimed a couple wins over Pac-12 schools in Arizona and Utah, so there’s not a huge gap between their resume and that of a top 10 team like BYU (which also has wins over Arizona and Utah, but also has a win over Arizona State).

Wyoming’s best wins are a shootout win over Northern Illinois and a blowout win over Ball State, but they also struggled to beat a really bad UConn team.

Their first two Mountain West opponents are Air Force and Fresno State. A couple wins there would make me feel better about including them in these rankings.

One team I’d rather not mention: Stanford (3-2)

But I do have some things to say about the Ducks-Cardinal game, and you can find my ruminations here.