San Jose State Spartans at Utah State Aggies

Friday, October 17
6:00 PM PT, CBS Sports Network

Line: Utah State –3.5
Over/Under: 64.5

Both teams enter this one with 1-1 marks in conference play following losses on the road a week ago.  The Spartans fell at Wyoming while the Aggies were undone at Hawai’i.

In the loss to UW, SJSU still managed to throw the ball for 340 yards as a team, the fourth time in six outings they have topped the 300-yard mark. The Spartans are currently 12th in the nation, averaging 309 yards passing per game.

The Aggies have struggled to stop the pass and allow 257 per game to rank 121st in the nation. The combination of Walker Eget to Danny Scudero could be a common theme in this one.

The WR currently leads the nation with 140.8 receiving yards per game and eight receiving TDs this season. His 50 receptions are the second most in the country. Look for big numbers from the Spartans through the air.

As good as SJSU is throwing the ball this season, they may be worse at stopping the pass. Only five teams in the nation are allowing more than the 292.7 yards through the air that the Spartans are yielding.

Utah State is not as prolific throwing the ball as San Jose State is, but Bryson Barnes can certainly sling it when he needs to and does so efficiently. The Aggie QB is currently 28th in the nation and second in the conference with a QB rating of 158.27.

He has thrown 12 touchdowns with just two interceptions.

Whichever team can limit the opposition’s passing attack better will get the win. I think both will gobble up yards and score a lot of points, but I give the edge to the Spartans and the more potent attack.

The 64.5 points over/under is a ton, but this game will go over. If you like shootouts, it will be worth staying up for Friday Night.

Against the spread: San Jose State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: San Jose State

UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos

Saturday, October 18
12:30 PM PT, FS1

Line: Boise State –11.5
Over/Under: 63.5

This is a battle for early supremacy in the Mountain West. The winner will have the inside track to the conference championship game, while the loser might eagerly await a rematch.

And a rematch certainly seems in the cards—this, after all, is the fourth meeting between the programs in the last 23 months.

At 6-0, UNLV is in some rare territory. Dan Mullen is the first coach to begin his career in Las Vegas 6-0 since the program’s inaugural season of 1968, when original coach Bill Ireland started 8-0 on the Division II level.

Boise State is 4-2, and the defense is on a three-game tear in which they have only allowed 264.7 yards per game and limited UNM to just 49 on the ground last week.

This is a Rebel offense that is 31st in the nation running the ball for 199.7 per game, topping the 200-yard plateau in half their games. The Broncos allowed both Air Force and Notre Dame to reach 200 on the ground.

That stat will be the key. If UNLV can establish a solid run game, they will be in it at the end. If Boise shuts down the ground attack, it will also take away the play action shots and RPO opportunities.

This Rebel team has been getting it done on the road in recent years. Since the start of the 2024 season, UNLV has won nine road games, the most of any FBS team.

Boise State has won their last 15 on the Blue Turf, though, tied for the longest active streak in the nation. I think the streak continues on the Blue pitch.

Against the spread: UNLV
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Boise State

Wyoming Cowboys at Air Force Falcons

Saturday, October 18
12:30 PM PT, CBS Sports Network

Line: Air Force –4.5
Over/Under: 58.5

Wyoming enters this one following a win over San Jose State in which the Cowboys had a furious fourth-quarter comeback for the win. UW scored the last 21 points to erase a 14-point deficit. It was their largest fourth-quarter comeback since 2009.

While the Pokes were able to overcome the slow start in that one, it is becoming a major issue this season. Wyoming has been outscored 83-40 in the first half this season. They are +28 in the final 30 minutes this year, but they need to fix the slow starts.

Falling behind in this one could be an issue. Despite entering this contest with a 1-5 mark on the season, the Falcons have had no trouble scoring points. AFA is 18th nationally, averaging 38.3 points per game.

The problem is that they are allowing 40.0 points per game, ranking 134th in the nation, and the Falcons’ total defense is dead last in the nation. If Wyoming can’t score early and often in this one they will be in trouble.

Despite the defensive struggles, playing catch-up against the Falcons and their run offense is no picnic.

The Cowboys’ passing attack took flight last week. If the Cowboys can stay balanced, they should be able to get off to a nice start and leave with the win.

If they are plagued by a slow start once again then the Falcons will fly away from them.

Against the spread: Wyoming
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Wyoming

Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors at Colorado State Rams

Saturday, October 18
4:00 PM PT, Spectrum

Line: Colorado State –2.5
Over/Under: 54.5

This one is a bit perplexing to me. Sure, the Rams are coming off a big win over Fresno State in convincing fashion, but the Warriors have looked the part of the better team all season long.

Yet here we are with CSU sitting at a two-and-a-half-point favorite at home.

The Rams will look to stunt at the line and create pressure up the middle. Hawaii is allowing 3.29 sacks per game, ranking 124th in the nation. The Rams pressure has not gotten home very often this season, and they have only tallied nine sacks in six games.

However, in their wins they are averaging 2.5 sacks per game while collecting only one per game in the four losses.

If the Rams can make things difficult on Micah Alejado, they can control things. If the UH line holds up and the QB has time to operate, they could exploit the Rams’ tight man-to-man coverage.

It is not easy to keep the UH receivers locked down over the course of a long play.

The Warriors will need to get some quick hitters and draws to keep the Rams pass rush at bay. If Hawaii can establish something on the ground, then it should open up the passing attack.

So, the numbers point slightly to the Rams, and the home field should give them an edge, but my gut is still saying Hawaii wins it.

I think the Warriors get bowl-eligible on Saturday.

Against the spread: Hawai’i
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Hawai’i

Nevada Wolf Pack at New Mexico Lobos

Saturday, October 18
6:45 PM PT, FS1

Line: New Mexico –11.5
Over/Under: 49.5

Jason Eck has the Lobos playing solid football.

Well, he did at least prior to the offense hitting a roadblock in Boise. In the loss to the Broncos, the ground attack was nowhere to be found as they were held to 49 yards rushing and just 2.04 yards per carry.

That has been an issue in each of New Mexico’s three losses this season. They have run for just 58.3 yards per game and 2.2 per carry in the losses compared to 215.3 and 5.2 per carry in the three wins.

Nevada has not been great this season defensively, but they have done a bit better against the run than they have against the pass. Look for the Wolf Pack to stack the box as best as they can against the Lobos.

But they will need to be careful; the Lobos can throw it a bit also, especially if against a heavy box.

For Nevada, the larger problem has been on the offensive side of the football. And while New Mexico has not been great defensively this season, I think they might look like they are against the Nevada offense.

The Lobos are a lot further along in the process than the Wolf Pack, and that will be evident on Saturday night.

Against the spread: New Mexico
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: New Mexico