Rutgers at Washington

Friday, October 10
6:00 PM PT, FS1

Line: Washington -10.5
Over/Under: 59.5

A pair of high-scoring offenses will be on offer in Seattle on Friday Night.

The Huskies boast the 16th-highest scoring offense in the nation, averaging 39.4 points per outing, while the Knights are the 18th most prolific scoring team in the country at 39.0 points per game.

So, whose defense will step up?

On paper, it looks like that edge lies with the Purple and Gold. UW is 19th in the nation in total defense, limiting foes to 283.6 yards per game. Rutgers is allowing 346.4 per game—not terrible, but not as stingy as the Huskies.

Washington has also played Ohio State this season, while the most dangerous offense Rutgers has faced is Ohio University. Athens and Columbus are only about an hour and twenty minutes apart on US 33, but those two offenses are nowhere near each other.

The Huskies were able to move the football with moderate success against OSU; the issue was in the Red Zone. In three trips inside the 20, UW came away with a pair of FGs. Leaving 11 points on the field in an 18-point loss.

In Washington’s other 19 trips to the Red Zone this season, they have scored a TD on 17 of them. Rutgers ranks 123rd in the nation in Red Zone defense and has converted 73.7% of their trips, 114th in the land.

The ground game may take a little while to get going for UW in this one. Rutgers has done a good job bottling up backs this season.

But it will eventually get going for Washington. Demond Williams should be able to find space, and Jonah Coleman will get loose at some point. Once the ground game is established, the Huskies should be in control.

Rutgers will score some points, but Washington wins going away.

Against the spread: Washington
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Washington

UCLA at Michigan State

Saturday, October 11
9:00 AM PT, Big Ten Network

Line: Michigan State -8.5
Over/Under: 55.5

Now, I am not going to try and tell you I had any inkling that UCLA was going to be able to shock the world against Penn State last week, because I did not.  I figured an angry PSU team would roll.

What I did say in this column last Thursday was that if the Bruins were going to have a chance at making it a game, then Nico Iamaleava would need to make plays with his arm and his legs.

Well, the QB did just that, running for 128 yards and three touchdowns. He added two more through the air, and that is the kind of output the Bruins need every time out from the star QB.

Obviously, those gawdy numbers will not be replicated each week, but the Bruins need him to make plays in the running game to open everything up.

So, was that game a sign of things to come for UCLA, or simply a blueprint on how to beat Penn State—something we have seen two weeks in a row now?

It might be a bit of both, maybe more of an indictment on PSU, but we’ll learn a lot about the Bruins this week.

The Spartans have been good against the run for the most part, but did get torched on the ground by USC. The confidence that UCLA will carry into East Lansing on offense can’t be understated.

MSU has only had to deal with one true running QB this season, Broc Lowry of Western Michigan, and he averaged 4.8 yards per carry. But he also had his lowest rushing performance, and it is worth noting his fewest rush attempts in a game so far.

So, the Bruins will once again need Iamaleava to create things with his legs. And it should open things up in through the air, as MSU has been dreadful against the pass this season.

The Bruin defense will need to force Aidan Chiles into some poor decisions and make things uncomfortable for the QB in the pocket. UCLA has not been able to get to QBs with any consistency

That will need to change against the Spartans, with some deficiencies in pass protection. If the Bruins allow Chiles to get in a groove, it could be a very long day for the visitors.

There is some hope for the Bruins now, as the season does not appear to be a total loss. There still are not a ton of wins left on the schedule, but this could be one of them . . . Though I don’t think it will be.

The Bruins cover, but the Spartans win in a very entertaining contest.

Against the spread: UCLA
Points Total:  Over
Outright winner: Michigan State

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois

Saturday, October 11
9:00 AM PT, FOX

Line: Ohio State -14.5
Over/Under: 49.5

There is a lot of college football left to be played this year, but a bit over a quarter of the way through the season, it seems there may not be a dominant team in 2025.

While that may or may not be the case, it does appear that there is a dominant defense, and that defense resides in Columbus, OH, and is clad in the Scarlet and Gray.

While the Buckeyes certainly have some offensive issues, the defense is as stout as it gets, with OSU allowing just 25 total points through five games.

Opponents have managed just three field goals in eight Red Zone trips, and are converting on just 20.3% of third downs. Make no mistake, his defense is a problem.

The last time Illinois faced a dominant defense, it was battered by Indiana. Luke Altmyer ended up on his back seven times.

The Illini seem to have the protection fixed since that debacle, however, allowing just three total sacks in the last two games. But look for the Buckeyes to ratchet up the heat.

If there is one thing the Buckeyes defense has not done well, it is creating takeaways and Illinois takes care of the football. Altmyer is not going to make a lot of mistakes and that, along with the defense, could keep the Illini in this one for a bit.

Ohio State wins and probably covers, but it stays tighter for a lot longer than some may expect.

Against the spread: Ohio State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State

No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon

Saturday, October 11
12:30 PM PT, CBS

Line: Oregon -7.5
Over/Under: 55.5

The last time a Big Ten team went to Eugene, Oregon, and left Autzen with a win was September 11, 2004. The victors that evening?The Indiana Hoosiers in a 30-24 stunner.

So, can the Hoosiers pull the upset again? Or will Oregon get a second signature win in as many games?

Now the Penn State win may have lost some luster after the klunker for PSU at the Rose Bowl last week, but make no mistake, winning at Penn State in a whiteout is no small feat and should not be discounted.

This will be the toughest defense Dante Moore and the Ducks have faced this season. Most likely, it will be the toughest unit they face in the regular season. And the key for the Ducks could be the play of their QB.

The last time out, against PSU, Moore was stellar, throwing the ball, but he also made plays with his legs. He’ll need to do that once again and create plays when things break down.

Indiana is among the best in the nation at getting to the QB, and they can get it done with just the front four. The Hoosiers don’t need a lot of exotic blitz packages to create havoc.

The Ducks have only allowed one sack all season.

And there, my friends, is the key to this one. Whoever controls the line of scrimmage, especially when Oregon has the ball, will most likely win.

The Hoosiers have the fifth-most prolific offense in the nation this season and are balanced on that side of the ball. If Oregon takes away the run, Indiana will be more than happy to sling it around.

Indiana is allowing just one sack per game, and a majority of them this season came at the hands of Iowa.

Oregon has not been great and creating sacks; the Ducks will need to make things uncomfortable for Fernando Mendoza. If the QB has a clean pocket and time to operate, he can pick apart a defense.

Neither of these teams turn it over; Oregon has only given the ball away once this season while Indiana has only turned it over twice. If either team creates a takeaway, it will be huge.

Oregon could be the best team in the nation, and Indiana may not be that far behind.

The line opened at 10.5 and has fallen to 7.5; the money is leaning toward Indiana. But the Ducks are the more talented team.

I think Oregon escapes with a home-field win, but the Hoosiers get the cover.

Against the spread: Indiana
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Oregon

Iowa at Wisconsin

Saturday, October 11
4:00 PM PT, FS1

Line: Iowa -3.5
Over/Under: 35.5

Iaybe Nebraska vs. Maryland is the more intriguing matchup, and with the way the Badgers are playing, that one involving the Terps and Huskers might have more bearing on the Big Ten standings.

But this one between Iowa and Wisconsin is a rivalry, and there is a trophy on the line, so I chose to write about it instead.

The Hartland Trophy is the prize, and the Hawkeyes have owned it for the last three years and will look for their first four-game win streak in the series since 2006.

Iowa boasts a 29-11 mark in its last 40 rivalry games (Iowa St, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin). For the Badgers, it is homecoming, and they have been a stellar 10-1 when welcoming back the alumni since 2013.

This one shapes up as the Badgers’ run defense against the Hawkeyes’ rushing attack. Wisconsin is one of just 13 teams nationally that have not allowed more than two runs of 20+ yards this season.

UW is sixth nationally, limiting opponents to just 75 yards on the ground, although they gave up 175 to Michigan last week.  Iowa is averaging 178 per outing on the ground.

Iowa is also very good against the run and, statistically speaking, better than their counterparts to the NE on US-151. The Hawkeyes are yielding just 69.4 rushing yards per game.

Unlike Iowa, Wisconsin can’t move the football on the ground, and really has not been too good at throwing it either.

This one will stay close, because these teams will always keep it close, but Iowa pulls away in the end and gets the win. The Badgers have not scored more than 14 in any of their last three; they won’t do so in this one either.

Against the spread: Iowa
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Iowa

No. 15 Michigan at USC

Saturday, October 11
4:30 PM PT, NBC

Line: USC -2.5
Over/Under: 57.5

This one is a big deal. It is Michigan and it is USC, two iconic brands in college football. IT would be a big deal no matter what, but the fact is the winner has a pretty good shot at being the fourth—if not third—best team in the Big Ten.

And with that also comes the opportunity to make your way into the Playoff.

For USC, this is a must-win game for that to happen following the loss to Illinois. With trips ahead to Notre Dame and Oregon, the Trojans have the opportunity to make a statement down the stretch, but they can’t afford a loss at home on Saturday.

Michigan has a visit from OSU to end the season, but this is their only chance at a signature road win, and a loss coupled with the earlier loss at Oklahoma would be enough to derail Michigan’s playoff hopes—barring another upset of the Buckeyes.

The Wolverines have not been anything near as dominant this season, but they keep winning games. And they are getting it done with fundamentally sound football. UM doesn’t turn it over, with just three giveaways all season.

And perhaps more importantly, especially with a true freshman under center, they are not committing penalties. The Wolverines are only getting flagged four times per game, the 11th fewest flags against per outing in the nation.

As a result, Michigan has only faced 25 third downs of 7+ yards this season. UM is converting just 24% of those third down attempts, while they have a conversion rate of 54.1% on third and six or less.

USC will need to get Michigan off schedule and behind the sticks. The way the Trojans can do that is by getting stops in the backfield. USC is seventh in the nation with 3.4 sacks per game and 8.0 tackles for loss per game, better than all but nine teams nationally.

The Wolverines don’t have many backwards plays but if the Trojans are to get this win, the defensive front will need to win in the trenches.

I think USC will hold serve at home and get the win in a game that stays tight the entire night.

Against the spread: USC
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: USC