No. 22 Iowa State at Colorado

Saturday, October 11
12:30 pm PT, ESPN

That might just be the perfect combination for an upset in Boulder.

But to get the win, the Buffs must take care of the football. Kaidon Salter threw three interceptions against TCU and has thrown more picks than touchdowns in his last two games.

That’s just not going to cut it. Especially against a Cyclone defense that’s missing its top two corners.

Colorado has the weapons at wide receiver to take advantage. The questions revolve around its quarterback.

On defense, keeping Rocco Becht from converting on the ground is key. The junior leader is effective in short-yardage run situations and changes the dynamic of the game.

Becht has seven rushing touchdowns this season, despite having just 55 yards rushing while averaging only 1.1 yards per rush.

If the CU defense wins the trenches and stuffs him behind the line on key plays, the chances of winning are better.

No. 18 BYU at Arizona

Saturday, October 11
5:00 pm PT, ESPN2

BYU has solid line play on both sides of the ball, but Arizona runs effective schemes on defense. The Wildcats still have not allowed a passing touchdown this season, and part of the reason is due to the pressure they generate by bringing extra defenders.

Utilizing pre-snap movement and technique after the snap, the UA defense is a problem.

At No. 4 nationally in tackles for loss per game, No. 7 nationally in turnovers forced, and No. 31 nationally in sacks per game, this is arguably the toughest defense Bear Bachmeier has faced this season.

Combine all that with a rowdy home crowd, and the potential for an Arizona win is real.

But Bachmeier’s threat to run is the ultimate equalizer. If he can bust big runs, defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales’s play-calling might change. Then, Bachmeier will have more time to wheel and deal in the passing game.

Buckle up, this will be a good one.

No. 21 Arizona State at Utah

Saturday, October 11
7:15 pm PT, ESPN

Kyle Whittingham versus Kenny Dillingham.

Devon Dampier versus Sam Leavitt.

Morgan Scalley versus Brian Ward.

How does Arizona State’s defensive coordinator handle Utah’s quarterback? That’s probably the biggest chess match of the game.

Utah’s offense is not as effective when Dampier is contained on the ground. And Ward knows it.

If ASU schemes it up correctly and the front seven adequately deals with the Ute offensive line, then a Sun Devil victory seems reasonable.

But if Dampier is getting first downs on the ground, freely moving in the pocket, and hitting his receivers in open space, then Utah probably has the edge.

Turnovers could be game changers.

And Leavitt’s execution figures to be critical.

The X-Factor, arguably, is Arizona State’s rushing offense. The Sun Devil running backs have answered the preseason questions and combine to form a potent rushing attack (No. 20 nationally and No. 3 in the Big 12).

Getting conversions in short-yardage situations, however, could be crucial. Because if Leavitt feels like he needs to shoulder more of the burden to get the offense going, the Utah defense might force mistakes and take advantage.

The rest of the league will be watching to see if the Utes finally win a Big 12 game at home.

The Rest of the Big 12

Texas Tech hosts Kansas in a game that shouldn’t be overlooked.

The 14-point spread feels a little high. The Vegas oddsmakers might not be giving Kansas enough credit.

Jalon Daniels continues to play elite, entering the game with a 16-to-2 touchdown/interception ratio.

I’m not saying to watch for an upset. But I am saying this might be closer than expected.

Cincinnati should be ranked. The AP Voters are incompetent and clearly don’t watch Big 12 football.

Brendan Sorsby is one of the top quarterbacks in the country, and the Bearcats are oozing momentum.

Facing rival Central Florida in Cincy, the game presents an opportunity to make a statement.

The Conference needs help combating the national bias against it, and a clear UC win would help.

TCU heads to Manhattan for a day game against Kansas State.

There’s a reason the spread is so narrow for this one. The Wildcats play much better at home and TCU isn’t in the top tier of the Big 12 hierarchy.

But the Horned Frogs have a better offense and should be able to handle Avery Johnson on defense.

If TCU wins, they could find themselves back in the AP Top 25.

Houston plays Oklahoma State in an interesting matchup.

You might have to be a college football sicko to enjoy this one, but there’s a minor chance that Ok State pulls off the upset.

The Cougars are an improved team and should win. Yet the Cowboys have an okay defense.

If Oklahoma State’s offense has a good day, a surprising win could happen.