No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois

Saturday, September 27
9:00 AM PT, FOX

Line: USC –6.5
Over/Under: 59.5

Last week, the Illini played in the conference’s marquee game and got throttled by Indiana 63-10. In the loss, Illinois allowed seven QB sacks, and they now rank third-to-last in the nation in sacks allowed per game at 4.0.

This was an issue for the Illini last season as they allowed 32 on the season. All five O-line starters have extensive experience, but the sacks keep mounting up.

USC enters the game with an NCAA-leading 16 sacks on the season and 4.0 per game.

Luke Altmyer could be in for another long afternoon in a shrinking pocket. The senior QB is one of the best in the nation at his position, but he needs to have some time to operate.

D’Anton Lynn’s defenses are nothing if not opportunistic.  Look for the Trojans to create a ton of pressure and force Altmyer into poor decisions or sacks. Braylan Shelby and Eric Gentry could have a field day rushing the QB in this one.

I think USC will win, for sure. The Trojans are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games, while the Illini are 7-1 ATS in their previous eight games at home.

Both of those trends go by the wayside as USC wins by at least a TD.

Against the spread: USC
Points Total:  Under
Outright winner: USC

Rutgers at Minnesota

Saturday, September 27
9:00 AM PT, BTN

Line: Minnesota –5.5
Over/Under: 51.5

This week, former Gopher QB Athan Kaliakmanis brings his Scarlet Knights to his old stomping grounds in Minneapolis.

Minnesota last took the field a couple of weeks ago when Cal shut them down, a loss that looks a lot worse today than it appeared to be at the time.

Kaliakmanis and the Rutgers offense got off to a fast start vs Iowa before stalling out. For the Knights to win this one, they will need the offense to strike early and often and get the Gophers out of their comfort zone.

The Minnesota offense is capable of scoring points, but they like to grind it out on the ground. Playing from behind is not their strong suit.

Now, moving the ball on Minnesota is a problem as the Gophers have the No. 1  defense in the nation, allowing just 177.7 yards per game.

The Gophers should be able to control the pace of this game, and if the RU offense stalls out again this week, they will be in trouble.

I like the Gophers in this one because their defense will control things. Look for a low-scoring one-possession contest.

Against the spread: Rutgers
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Minnesota

No. 1 Ohio State at Washington

Saturday, September 27
12:30 PM PT, CBS

Line: Ohio State –8.5
Over/Under: 51.5

Well, the one thing we know is that a streak is coming to an end in Seattle this weekend.

Ohio State enters the game riding a seven-game winning streak, tied for the second-longest streak in the nation. Washington enters this one having won their last 22 home games, the second-longest active streak in the nation.

But which streak will come to an end?

The answer to that might lie in how well Julian Sayin fares in the first road game of his college career. Husky Stadium, with 70,000 strong in purple and gold, might not be the most optimal for that first road start.

Sayin already has big game experience at this level with the week one win over Texas, and in that one, the freshman was smart with the football and did not turn it over.

The Huskies will need to force mistakes; he’s thrown three interceptions in the other two games. This is a very good UW secondary, and the Huskies rank 20th nationally with 1.33 interceptions per game.

For Washington, the run game will need to click like it has all season. Jonah Coleman is a beast and leads the nation with nine rushing TDs, and is eighth in the nation with 115.7 yards per game.

UW’s multifaceted rushing attack is averaging 260 yards per outing, the ninth-best in the country.

Ohio State is solid against the run, but did allow Texas 166 yards on the ground. The Huskies not only have talented RBs but a QB who is a threat to run the ball. Look for Demond Williams Jr. to make some plays with his legs.

OSU will load up the box, and the front seven will need to have a spy on Williams, which could open things up in the passing game. Williams could make the Buckeyes pay if they force him to throw the ball.

OSU is sixth nationally against the pass, so this will be a key to watch in this one.

Ryan Day is 6-0 when coming off a regular-season bye week, and the average margin in those six wins is 41 points. Do we see a blowout of that magnitude?

I don’t think so, but I do think the Buckeyes pass this big road test.

Against the spread: Ohio State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State

UCLA at Northwestern

Saturday, September 27
12:30 PM PT, BTN

Line: Northwestern –6.5
Over/Under: 44.5

Someone has to win this game, right? Both teams need a win in the worst possible way.

Northwestern at least has one win under its belt, albeit against Western Illinois, but a win is a win at this point. The Wildcats also showed some fight the last time out in their loss to Oregon two weeks ago.

UCLA has yet to get a win, and they showed no fight at all in their loss two weeks ago to New Mexico, which ultimately ended the DeShaun Foster era in Westwood.

So, how do the Bruins respond, and can Tim Skipper get them to play with some fire for the remainder of the season? This week should give us an answer.

Let’s be honest, the Bruins don’t have a ton of potential wins left on the schedule, but this should be one of them and perhaps the only one. If they come out flat in Evanston, then October and November are going to be very long months for UCLA.

The Wildcats have given the ball away this season. A lot. UCLA has only forced two turnovers, and both were in the loss to UNM. This game offers a chance for UCLA to force miscues.

Northwestern has ULM coming to town next week, and with a win over the Bruins, could be looking at a 3-2 start. That would give the Cats some hope before the rough stretch of the schedule.

I don’t see UCLA matching the intensity of Northwestern in this contest.

Against the spread: Northwestern
Points Total:  Under
Outright winner: Northwestern

No. 11 Indiana at Iowa

Saturday, September 27
12:30 PM PT, Peacock

Line: Indiana –7.5
Over/Under: 48.5

Indiana heads to Iowa after a big win over Illinois and ahead of a trip to Eugene for a date with the Ducks.

Kinnick Stadium is no place to get caught in a trap game. It is often the site where ranked foes falter. Can the Hoosiers avoid such a trap?

Yes, I think they can.

The Hawkeyes are 3-1 with the lone loss coming at the buzzer to Iowa State. The Iowa defense is still an elite unit, and I don’t think Indiana will be overlooking them at all.

As good as that defense is, allowing just 233.5 yards per game, they did get shredded by Athan Kaliakmanis and Rutgers last week to the tune of 330 passing yards and a completion percentage of 60%.

So, if the Rutgers offense could do that, what can Fernando Mendoza and the IU offense accomplish?

Mendoza is playing at a Heisman level, and the Hoosier offensive line opened up holes big enough for cars to drive through against a good Illini front. Indiana’s offense will score more than enough in this one.

Defensively, the Hoosiers have been lights out and last week held Illinois in check with just two yards on the ground. The IU line was dominant in that one, but the back end of the defense had a few breakdowns, one resulting in the lone Illini TD.

Offensively, Iowa looks like a juggernaut this season compared to past Iowa squads. The Hawkeyes are still a run-first and run-heavy team. They could have a hard time finding space on the ground against Indiana.

Mark Gronowski will need to make some plays he has not yet made this season.

This one will not be 63-10, but Indiana will get the win and cover.

Against the spread: Indiana
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Indiana

No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State

Saturday, September 27
4:30 PM PT, NBC

Line: Penn State –3.5
Over/Under: 51.5

A whiteout in Happy Valley under the lights can only mean three things: It is a sight to behold, it is a big game, and the visitors will have a tough time winning.

It also means we writers will bring up the 4-20 mark that James Franklin currently holds against Top 10 opponents during his 12-year tenure at Penn State.

One of those losses came last December to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game. A Duck win at Penn State would probably punch their ticket to the playoffs, barring any major unexpected stumbles.

The same could be said of PSU, but the road win would be gigantic for UO. The loser still most likely ends up in the playoffs, but a loss certainly narrows the margin for error.

Dan Lanning is 3-4 against top 10 opponents during his time with the Ducks, and Oregon has looked about as sharp as they possibly could have so far this season.

Dante Moore has been on another level, and the QB has barely been touched as the Ducks have allowed just one sack in four games. While the opposition has not exactly been murders row for Oregon, it has been stiffer then what Penn State has faced.

Penn State allowed FIU to run for 141 yards against them, and that is a cause for concern ahead of this one. The Panthers only mustered 3.6 yards per carry, but this UO line will be far more effective.

We should learn quite a bit about both of these teams, and I think we will probably see a second meeting this season.

As for the first one, I think it plays out similarly to the Big Ten title game and the prior 24 games for Franklin against Top 10 opponents.

The Ducks run their regular season win streak to 23 games.

Against the spread: Oregon
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Oregon