
By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
October 26, 2023
This week the big matchup is in Boise where Wyoming has a chance to cement its claim as the clear No. 2 team in the league.
The Broncos get to remind people they are still a force to be reckoned with.
UNLV will get a test in Fresno; the Rebels are unbeaten in conference play and look to prove they belong while the Bulldogs will look to show they are still alive and well for the conference championship.
As always, my assessments reflect last week’s results and are subject to change.
Below are my Week 9 Power Rankings along with previews of upcoming contests and my game picks.
1. Air Force Falcons (7-0, 4-0) ◄►
Navy Review
Air Force is 7-0 this season, their first perfect start after seven games since 1997, and the Falcons are 4-0 in Mountain West play for the first time ever.Dating back to last season, Air Force has won 12 consecutive games, the fourth longest active streak in the nation, and tied for the second-longest unbeaten run in program history.
Against Navy, the defense completely shut down the Midshipmen. After three quarters of play, Air Force had allowed just 11 yards of total offense.
A Navy team that averages over 200 yards of rushing per game was held to 22 yards on the ground. The Falcon offense was not as dominant as it has been at times this season, but the defense stepped up and then some.
Colorado State Preview
Saturday, October 28
4:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
Air Force has beaten their in-state conference rivals in each of the last six meetings and 14 of the last 16 times the teams have met.
The Falcon defense might get tested in this one with the Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi to Tory Horton connection. The Rams will get their passing yardage.
The Rams will have no answer for the Air Force ground attack, however. Air Force will keep the Ram-Falcon Trophy and improve to 8-0 for the first time since 1970.
My Pick: Air Force 27, CSU 14
2. Wyoming Cowboys (5-2, 2-1) ◄►
BYE Week Review
Wyoming is coming out of a bye ahead of their trip to Boise State. The Cowboys have a winning formula in place under Craig Bohl.On offense, they run the ball and convert third downs. Defensively, they have a good front seven that will punish opponents.
The Cowboys are 2-1 in conference play with the lone loss coming at the hands of Air Force. They trail the Falcons and UNLV in the standings and are tied with Fresno State and Boise State.
Wyoming owns the tiebreaker over the Bulldogs and can get a leg up on the Broncos this week.
Boise State Preview
Saturday, October 28
2:30 pm PT, FS2
The Cowboys’ bye week provided some extra time to allow Harrison Waylee and Cole Goodbout to get back on the field.
UW has certainly missed Waylee and his big play ability, but in his absence the last two games Andrew Peasley has stepped his game up at QB.
Boise State is 129th in the nation against the pass so he could play a big role in this one. The Cowboys are 1-16 all-time and 0-8 against the Broncos in Boise.
Breaking that drought would go a long way toward setting the Cowboys up with a trip to the Mountain West Championship game.
Wyoming is riding momentum and playing better football than the Broncos at the moment.
The Blue Turf is always going to offer a difficult environment, but if Wyoming is ever going to break through with a program-defining win, this is the time to make it happen.
I think the Cowboys get the road win and a leg up on their rivals in the conference.
My Pick: Wyoming 26, BSU 23
3. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-1, 2-1) ◄►
BYE Week Review
Fresno State rebounded from their first loss of the season with a 37-32 win over Utah State in Logan ahead of their bye.The Bulldogs have locked up bowl eligibility already and carry a 2-1 mark in conference play into their home date with UNLV.
Fresno State has a chance to take some conference momentum over the next two weeks. Following the unbeaten Rebels, it will be Boise State.
If the Broncos can knock off Wyoming this week it could give Fresno State, the inside track to the MW title game.
UNLV Preview
Saturday, October 28
7:30 pm PT, FS1
Fresno State has won six in a row over UNLV, but this is not the same Rebels team that those wins have come against. UNLV is 15th in the nation in rushing, averaging 209.6 yards per outing.
The Bulldog defense has been stout against the run this season ranking 31st in the nation with 114.4 yards against per game. Whoever can control the line of scrimmage will have a leg up in this tilt.
I think Fresno State will prove to be too much in a hard-fought game, the home-field advantage will be a difference-maker.
The Bulldogs’ seven-game winning streak at Valley Children’s Stadium is the ninth-longest active streak in the nation.
My Pick: Fresno State 26, UNLV 20
4. UNLV Rebels (6-1, 3-0) ◄►
Colorado State Review
UNLV failed to top the 40-point mark last week for the first time in their last five games, but the Rebels still got the win.The five-game winning streak is their longest since 1984. With the 6-1 start to the season, Barry Odom is the first UNLV head coach to win six of his first seven games at the school since Ron Meyer started 6-1 in 1973.
The Rebels are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2012.
Fresno State Preview
Saturday, October 28
7:30 pm PT, FS1
UNLV will look to open conference play 4-0 for the first time since they started 4-0 in the Big West under John Robinson. The Rebels are running the ball very effectively this season.
UNLV’s 22 rushing TDs are tied for the second-most in the nation and their turnover margin of +9 is third nationally. This is a very good UNLV team.
In order to get the win at Fresno State the Rebels will need to take care of the ball and create takeaways. The Bulldogs are very good against the run, UNLV will need Jayden Maiava to come up big.
If this one were in Vegas, I’d go with the Rebels, but in Fresno, I think the Bulldogs will have the edge.
My Pick: Fresno State 26, UNLV 20
5. Colorado State Rams (3-4, 1-2) ◄►
UNLV Review
Colorado State dropped a pivotal game against UNLV in the final second. Picking up a fourth win in Las Vegas would have been big in their quest for six wins and bowl eligibility.Still, the Rams are sitting at 3-4 after seven games and have a chance to reach the four-win mark faster than they have since opening 2017 4-2.
Since Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi took over after Week One, this offense has been very efficient. A tough stretch awaits in the next two games, but the final three will offer a chance to push for a 6-6 record on the season.
Air Force Preview
Saturday, October 28
4:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
Air Force has a stingy defense and will make things difficult for Colorado State.
Fowler-Nicolosi and Tory Horton are too good of a pair not to get their yardage, the question is if they will be able to get the ball in the endzone enough.
The Falcons will be able to run the ball. The Rams are 91st in the nation against the run and have been even worse in the last three games.
CSU has allowed 212 yards per game rushing in the last three, and the Falcons will exploit that and keep the Ram-Falcon Trophy in Colorado Springs for another season.
My Pick: Air Force 27, CSU 14
6. Boise State (3-4, 2-1) ▲1
BYE Week Review
Boise State comes out of their bye and George Holani will be healthy and should be in the lineup again. All Ashton Jeanty has done in his absence is lead the nation in all-purpose yards per game with 180.6.The addition of Holani will lighten his load a bit and should keep both backs fresh. The two-headed monster at running back could be what turns things around for the Broncos.
The two-headed QB system has not proven to be effective in recent games, but we will continue to see both Taylen Green and Maddux Madsen behind center.
Wyoming Preview
Saturday, October 28
2:30 pm PT, FS2
Boise State will welcome Wyoming to town this week in a game that will go a long way in deciding who plays in the Mountain West Championship game.
Despite their struggles so far this season, the Broncos are still 2-1 in conference play. With games still to play against Fresno State and Air Force the Broncos still have a lot of control.
Wyoming certainly comes in as the hotter team at the moment, but the Cowboy defense will pose a stiff test. Boise State has been good against the run this season but is 129th against the pass.
Andrew Peasley has shown the ability to win games for Wyoming this season and he could have a big game.
My Pick: Wyoming 26, BSU 23
7. San Jose State Spartans (3-5, 2-2) ▲2
Utah State Review
San Jose State got a much-needed win over Utah State. The Spartans poured it on in the second half and completely dominated the Aggies over the final 30 minutes.SJSU has outscored their opponents 66-14 combined in the second half of their last two games. San Jose State has struggled to get wins at times this season, but they are 14th in the nation with just six turnovers on the year.
Hawai’i Preview
Saturday, October 28
2:30 pm PT, FS2
San Jose State has a chance to keep momentum going with a visit to Hawai’i this week. The Rainbows have not been great on the defensive side of the ball and I’d look for the Spartans to continue to put up points.
San Jose State has also had its struggles on defense, but the run game has been the major issue where they are 124th in the nation. Hawai’i does not run the ball.
This game plays right into the Spartans’ hands and they inch closer to .500
My Pick: SJSU 43, Hawai’i 27
8. Utah State Aggies (3-5, 1-3) ▼2
San Jose State Review
Utah State got outscored by San Jose State 14-0 in the first quarter last week. Moreover, the Aggies have been outscored 105-17 in the opening quarter this season.Against the Spartans, they were able to rebound and tie it up at the half but got outscored 28-7 after halftime. The loss to San Jose State was a big blow for the Aggies’ hopes of reaching six wins and becoming bowl-eligible.
Utah State still has a shot to get to the six-win mark, but the margin of error is getting thin.
BYE Week
The Aggies will head into their bye and look to get back on track against a struggling San Diego State squad.
That will be the first of a four-game stretch in which Utah State could go unbeaten with a visit from Boise State the most daunting test left—on paper at least.
9. New Mexico Lobos (3-4, 1-2) ▲2
Hawai’i Review
New Mexico ended its 14-game conference losing streak with a win over Hawai’i. Dylan Hopkins picked up Offensive Player of the Week honors for the Conference after his performance in the win.
The last time a Lobo quarterback won the honor twice in the same season was in 1997 when Graham Leigh was the Western Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Week four times.
Jermarius Lewis also led a secondary that performed well against UH and picked up Defensive POW honors.
Nevada Preview
Saturday, October 28
7:30 pm PT, CBS Sports
The Lobos have a chance to start a winning streak this week against Nevada. UNM has won five of the last six between the two teams.
New Mexico has played much better than the Wolf Pack this season and I think the Lobo defense will be able to keep Nevada’s offense in check. The Lobos have too much on offense for Nevada to match.
My Pick: New Mexico 23, Nevada 17
10. San Diego State Aztecs (3-4, 1-3) ▼2
Nevada Review
The Aztecs hit close to rock bottom last week with a 6-0 loss at the hands of Nevada. San Deigo State ran 31 plays in plus territory against the Wolf Pack and came away with no scores.The defense played well but the offense was obviously not there as the Aztecs suffered their first shutout since 2018. Not only were the Aztecs shut out at home, but Nevada also won its first game in over a year.
A season that started with so much promise and a win over an Ohio team that is currently 6-2 has taken quite a turn for the worse.
BYE Week
I am not sure if there is much that can be done to recover from this loss or if we will see much of a revival of the season.
The final four games offer a chance to start over and finish strong, and a bowl game is still within reach. It is on Brady Hoke and his staff to flip the switch on this season.
11. Nevada Wolf Pack (1-6, 1-2) ▲1
San Diego State Review
The streak is over! Nevada had lost 16 straight games, the longest active streak in the nation, and that streak is no more after a shutout win over San Diego State.The shutout was the first for the Wolf Pack since 2011. Nevada could only muster two field goals, but all they needed was one.
New Mexico Preview
Saturday, October 28
7:30 pm PT, CBS Sports
This game was going to be a streak-ender for one of these teams, but as it turns out, one of them will now carry a two-game winning streak out of it.
I think it is going to be the Lobos with the win. Nevada will keep it tight, but UNM ultimately has too much.
My Pick: New Mexico 23, Nevada 17
12. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (2-6, 0-3) ▼2
New Mexico Review
I keep thinking Hawai’i is a much better team this season than last year—and I still think they are—but the results may not bear it out. Last week was certainly not a step in the right direction.The offensive numbers are getting better this season. Brayden Schager has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of his last 17 games, which is currently the fourth-longest streak nationally.
His five games with at least 300 yards passing are the second-most in the nation this season, trailing only Michael Penix Jr. But the Rainbow Warriors are still just 2-6 on the season.
San Jose State Preview
Saturday, October 28
2:30 pm PT, FS2
This week, the Rainbow Warriors welcome San Jose State to town for the UH homecoming weekend. The Spartans are entering with some momentum and a hot offense.
Hawai’i has been outscored 90-24 in the first quarter this season, and if the Spartans get an early lead in this one, they will not let it go.
My Pick: SJSU 43, Hawai’i 27
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