Fresno State vs New Mexico State

Saturday, December 16
2:45 pm PT, ESPN
Albuquerque, NM

New Mexico State is 8-1 in their last nine games with the lone loss coming at the hands of Liberty in the Conference USA championship game.

Fresno State comes into the bowl game having lost three in a row as a team that looked like a lock for the Mountain West Championship game before a late-season swoon.

The Aggies won 10 games this season, marking just the second double-digit win total in a season in school history. The other came in 1960, the last time NMSU played in a bowl game in consecutive seasons.

Last year, the Aggies were winners in the Quick Lane Bowl, running their bowl game record to 4-0-1 all-time, but just two of those appearances have come since 1960.

Fresno State is in a bowl game for the third consecutive season. The Bulldogs have gone 16-14 all-time in their 31 bowl games.

New Mexico State and Fresno State are nearly identical in scoring this season with the Bulldogs averaging 29.9 points per game while allowing 24.6, and the Aggies outscoring foes 29.4-22.2 per game this season.

Their respective paths to those points have been very different, though. The Aggies are averaging 204.4 rushing yards per game, 100 yards more than Fresno State is getting per game.

The Bulldogs average 274.1 through the air, over 50 yards more per game than NMSU is averaging. The Aggies are 11th in the nation in rushing this season, but don’t let those numbers fool you

Diego Pavia can get the job done at QB. Pavia ranks 14th in the nation in passing touchdowns with 26. But the strength of the Aggies lies in the trenches.

NM State has outrushed every team they have played except the two games against Liberty, the nation’s leading rushing team. Dating back to last season, the Aggies have run for at least 170 yards in 17 consecutive games.

The Bulldogs will lean on their defense, which ranks fifth in the nation in interceptions with 16 while being tied for seventh in the nation in turnover margin with a plus-10 margin.

New Mexico State is 89th in the nation with a turnover margin of –3 on the season. If the Bulldogs can force errors, they will be in decent shape.

Interceptions may not be bountiful as the Aggies have only thrown nine all season. The Aggies are 6-0 this season when they don’t give the ball away.

NM State will look to run the ball and control the clock as the Aggies snap the ball an average of every 30.4 seconds to rank 129th out of 133 teams nationally in pace.

A key to this one will be Fresno State’s ability to get NMSU off the field on third down. The Aggies are 32nd in the nation with a third down conversion rate of 43.95%.

The Bulldogs rank 77th in the nation getting opponents off the field on just 39.88% of third down attempts. When faced with third down and 7+ yards to gain the Aggies are converting on just 26.31%.

If New Mexico State can churn out yards and make things manageable, it could be a long day for the Bulldogs. Fresno State will need big stops on first and second down to keep New Mexico State behind schedule.

This will be the 20th time the programs have met on the gridiron with the Bulldogs owning an 18-1 edge in the all-time series. Running that all-time mark to 19-1 could be a difficult task.

My Pick: New Mexico State 27, Fresno State 24

(Fresno State +3.5 & Under 51.5)

Boise State vs UCLA

Saturday, December 16
4:30 pm PT, ABC
Inglewood, CA

The LA Bowl will certainly highlight that on both sides—most notably, at the QB position for both teams.

Taylen Green has transferred to Arkansas and Maddux Madsen is out following his knee surgery.

Boise State will see a player make their first career start at SoFi Stadium; most likely it will be CJ Tiller, but it could be Colt Fulton.

Either way, it will be career start number one, and in true BSU fashion this season, we may see both QBs play.

For UCLA, Dante Moore is among a host of Bruins that have entered the transfer portal, and Carson Steele was not spotted at practice and could soon follow his seven teammates in the portal.

The status of QB Ethan Garbers is uncertain for the Bruins following his injury in the regular season finale to Cal.

Most notably, though, the Bruins will be without Laiatu Latu as he gets ready for the NFL Draft and winds down the awards circuit.

Kamari Ramsey is also in the portal, meaning UCLA will be without two of their top six tacklers for the game.

UCLA will also be without Defensive Coordinator D’Anton Lynn as he has departed for USC. The absence of him and Latu may be the biggest issue for the Bruins in this game.

The Bruins will turn to Ikaika Malloe to call the plays on defense with Lynn gone.

Needless to say, the LA Bowl could have a dramatically different look and feel than the regular season did for these teams.

Boise State ended the season on a roll and the thing they still have going for them is their backfield. The duo of George Holani and Ashton Jeanty may be one of the best backfield pairs in the nation.

Jeanty’s 164.9 scrimmage yards per game were the most in the nation—by 15 yards. Despite not a single return yard this season Jeanty was second in all-purpose yards.

UCLA was second in the nation in rushing defense this season, allowing just 69.6 yards per game on the ground.

The question is: How will the changes in UCLA’s defense ahead of the bowl game change the outlook against the run? I think the edge will lie with Boise State.

Cal produced on the ground against the Bruins with 124 yards in the regular season finale. The Broncos were seventh in the nation running the ball in 2023 with 214.9 yards per game.

During their four-game win streak, Boise State has run for 263.3 yards per game. With an inexperienced QB, it will be even more critical for the Broncos to get production on the ground.

Whichever team controls the line of scrimmage better will get the win in this one.

While Boise State ended on a roll to win their first Mountain West Championship game since 2019, assuring Spencer Danielson of the head coaching position, UCLA lost three of their last four games.

In those three losses, the Bruins averaged just 8.0 points per game. One team is hot, and the other is not. When it comes to bowl games, sometimes it comes down to who wants to be there more.

The extra practices right now are big for the Bruins and some of the younger guys that may have to play next season are getting valuable reps. I just think the Broncos will come out with a lot more purpose in this game.

My Pick: Boise State 26, UCLA 21

(BSU +4.5 & Under 48.5)