Boise State at South Florida

Thursday, August 28
2:30 PM PT, ESPN

Line: Boise State -5.5
Over/Under Point Total: 62.5

This early-season road test could have national implications in the postseason. The MW and AC should be the top two Group of Five conferences, and the champions should be battling it out for the Playoff spot.

Boise State is favored to win the MW, while USF is predicted to be in the upper half of the American. A road win would set the table for the Broncos, giving the MW initial conference supremacy in the G5.

Should the Bulls pull the upset, the AC will have a big win to harp on in November.

This is a tricky opener for Boise State.

The Thursday evening game sends them on a long road trip against a team that has been quietly building momentum over the last two years under coach Alex Golesh.

South Florida has capped off each of its last two seasons with bowl wins, including a 2023 45-0 smack down of Syracuse.

Boise State is coming off a 12-win season and looks to continue building in Spencer Danielson’s second full season. The head man has delivered to date with a 15-3 record to open his coaching career.

The Bronco offense should be explosive with Maddux Madsen at the helm and an improved receiving unit to work with. Ashton Jeanty is gone, but the running backs are a deeper group with a lot of talent.

The Bulls also have offensive firepower and should be explosive with a healthy Byrum Brown pulling the strings at QB. In 2023, he was the program’s first 3,000-yard passer before injuries derailed his 2024 campaign.

Both defenses will be tested, and this one should provide plenty of points and excitement on Thursday night.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Boise State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Boise State

Wyoming at Akron

Thursday, August 28
4:00 PM PT, ESPN+

Line: Wyoming -6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 48

UW struggled in the debut campaign for Jay Sawvel, concluding 2024 with a 3-9 mark during an injury riddled season. With healthy parts, the Cowboys look to be much more competitive in 2025.

The second-year head coach’s opposite number in this one, Joe Morehead, has a ton of career experience, but the Zips have not experienced many of wins in his three seasons at the helm.

Akron has struggled to an 8-28 mark in their last 34 games.

The Cowboys’ offense, while still far from where they want to be, should be improved this season. Last season, the offense struggled, but the defense led the nation in third-down conversions, allowing just 25.9%.

The Cowboys are loaded at LB and the defensive line should really strong and this Cowboy front will be tough to run against.

Ben Finley leads the Akron offense and did the same at NC State prior to transferring to the Zips. He is an experienced QB who should be a steady influence for the Zips.

Last season, UW scored less than 15 points six times. They may not need a bunch of offense to leave with a win, but they need to score a bit more than a couple of TDs.

Wyoming should be the better team in this one, but with Finley at the helm for the Zips, the defense will need to be sharp and the offense will have to find some production.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Akron
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Wyoming

Central Michigan at San Jose State

Friday, August 29
7:30 PM PT, FS1

Line: San Jose State -11
Over/Under Point Total: 51.5

This game not only opens the season for the Chips but also marks the first season at CMU for head coach Matt Drinkall, who had been on Army’s staff since 2019.

I am bearish on the Spartans this season. I think they have a legitimate shot at an 11-1 regular season that would result in a MW title game birth.

This is not one they should stumble out of the gate on.  But with a road trip to Texas on deck, the Spartans can not look past the Chips and cannot afford to start 0-2.

Central is eyeing trips to Pitt and Michigan following this one, and stealing the opener in San Jose would go a long way to getting six wins and bowl eligibility.

The San Jose State offense should be potent this season, and with Walker Eget guiding things, the Spartans should not turn it over very often.

Conversely, the Chips were woeful at creating takeaways in 2024, ranking dead last with five turnovers forced.

CMU’s offense may take a few weeks to get things going with the new system—a few weeks that the Chips don’t have, given their opening opponents.

The Spartan defense should overwhelm Central, and any growing pains will not get worked out in Week One.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: San Jose State

UTEP at Utah State

Saturday, August 30
4:30 PM PT, CBS Sports

Line: Utah State -5.5
Over/Under Point Total: 60.5

But for now, it is the Aggies in the MW and the Miners of CUSA, setting up another matchup between a pair of conferences that could be vying for a Playoff spot—except neither of these teams will be among them.

UTEP is in Year Two under Scotty Walden and should be in the middle of their conference. Utah State is coming off a dismal 2024, and the rebuild is in full swing.

Mendenhall tends to get the most out of his players and has directed quick turnarounds in the past. This season, he has a veteran QB in place with Bryson Barnes leading the offense.

The Aggies’ issue last season was not on the offensive side of the ball, and they should once again be able to put up points.

UTEP struggled to keep opponents off the board in 2024, and while they should be a bit better defensively this season. The Utah State offense will be too much in this one.

UTEP also struggled to score regularly last season, but should see better production this year, and especially in this one, against a USU defense that still has work to do.

The Miners have named Malachi Nelson their starting quarterback. The long and winding road of his college football career has brought the former top prospect to El Paso via Boise and Los Angeles.

Life at UTEP differs greatly from life at USC, but the QB will have something to prove, for sure.

Look for a heavy dose of offense, but the Aggies will open the Mendenhall era with a win.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Utah State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Utah State

New Mexico at No. 14 Michigan

Saturday, August 30
4:30 PM PT, NBC/Peacock

Line: Michigan -34.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

Well, a lot of those parts are gone, as are a lot of the coaching staff.

What looked like the promise of a turnaround now sees the Lobos starting over once again under Jason Eck. And from the very start, it will not be easy, with a prime-time visit to Ann Arbor.

Offensively, the Lobos should be able to run the football this season, and Scottre Humphrey should be one of the better backs in the conference. But will they be able to run it effectively against the Wolverines?

On defense, the Lobos will look to bring pressure. Eck’s Idaho teams were very disruptive, and I think we will see a lot of that at UNM this season as well. But will they be able to bring the pressure against Michigan?

Hmm, the answer to both of those questions may not bode well for New Mexico.

The Wolverine front is tough for the stoutest of ground attacks to run against, and Michigan will have a huge edge in the trenches.

The Wolverines will be starting true freshman Bryce Underwood, and if the Lobos can rattle him and control the ball on the offense, they could keep it close for a while.

There are a lot of “ifs” involved in UNM’s slim chances, and I see the game getting out of hand fairly soon.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Michigan
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan

Hawai’i at Arizona

Saturday, August 30
7:30 PM PT, TNT/HBO Max

Line: Arizona -17.5
Over/Under Point Total: 53

In that victory, Micah Alejado made big plays to lead Hawai’i, and for the third time in as many career games, he did not give the football away.

Alejado also got banged up and his health for this one could be in doubt. UH will need a healthy Alejado this season, so its reasonable to ask how much the coaches will want to push him in this one?

Arizona’s defense will get after it more than the Cardinal did in the opener. Look for the Wildcats to make things as difficult as possible on the Warrior offense.

If Luke Weaver is directing the offense, it might not click like it needs to, and the running game is not something the Warriors can rely on.

On the other side of the ball, Hawaii allowed 177 rushing yards to Stanford last week, and the Wildcats should be even more productive with their line.

If Arizona can’t establish a run in this one, Hawaii could have a chance to pull an upset. If that is the case, then it could be a really long season in Tucson.

I think the nature of this one could keep it low-scoring and within the 17.5 points. Arizona might win comfortably, but it may stay tighter than expected.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Hawai’i
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Arizona