UNLV Rebels at Miami (OH) RedHawks

Saturday, September 20
9:00 AM PT, ESPNU

Line: UNLV –2.5
Over/Under: 48.5

The Rebels enter the game 3-0 after knocking off UCLA two weeks ago. That was UNLV’s first win over a Big Ten team since 2003.

It was also the first time this season UNLV looked like the version we thought we’d see this season, and even then it was only for a half.

The Rebels let the Bruins back in it in the second half and held on for the win, and let’s face it, UCLA isn’t looking like world beaters at the moment.

So, this one is tough. At first glance, you think UNLV will win it easily—the RedHawks are 0-2 after falling at Wisconsin and Rutgers—but I am not so sure.

Miami of Ohio has been to a bowl game each of the last five seasons and has been eligible in eight of the last nine. This is good, established program. Also, the early kickoff could be problematic for the Rebels.

Against the Badgers, the Miami offense never got going and against the Knights the defense gave up too many plays. In each game the RedHawks allowed over 160 yards on the ground.

UNLV enters this one running the ball for 201 per outing after averaging over 4.6 yards per carry against UCLA. That ground attack could be the difference.

And let’s not forget about Anthony Colandrea. The junior QB has looked very sharp this season and was crisp against the Bruins. If Miami looks to load up the box, the Rebels will beat them with the pass.

UNLV needs to clean up the penalties. They are the most penalized team in the nation this season, with 104 penalty yards per game. They likely won’t be able to keep winning games like that, but so far, they have.

I think they will win another one to improve to 4-0—and ideally, for their sake, this one is a little cleaner.

Against the spread: UNLV
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: UNLV

Boise State Broncos at Air Force Falcons

Saturday, September 20
4:00 PM PT, CBSSN

Line: Boise State –10
Over/Under: 51.5

This one is the conference opener for the Broncos while the Falcons dip into MW action for the second consecutive week.

And for the first time this season, Boise State will play on a Saturday. In fact, if you go back to last season, this snaps a streak of five straight non-Saturday games for Boise State.

That gets our fun fact out of the way. As for the action on the field, the Broncos have too much on offense for the Falcons to contend with.

Air Force enters the game having given up 473 yards and 8.45 yards per play in the loss to Utah State.

Boise State currently has the 17th-best offense in the nation, producing 507.5 yards per game.  The Broncos have also been balanced with their attack. Maddux Madsen has been highly efficient this season for Boise.

Even in the loss to USF, when he missed a few passes, he took care of the football. In fact, his streak of 220 consecutive passes in road games without an interception is the longest such streak in the FBS.

Boise State has allowed just 117 yards on the ground in each of its first two games. Air Force will get the ground attack going, but it is not going to come easy.

The Falcons will need to force turnovers to have a chance, something they did not do against USU. If Air Force is minus-3 in the TO department again this week, the contest get out of hand in a hurry.

The Broncos are 12-2 all-time in MW openers, and they will end their time in the conference with another 1-0 start to conference play.

Against the spread: Boise State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Boise State

UTSA Roadrunners at Colorado State Rams

Saturday, September 20
6:30 PM PT FS1

Line: UTSA –4.5
Over/Under: 59.5

UTSA comes into this one with a win over Incarnate Word after falling to Texas A&M and Texas State. Colorado State fell at Washington before a narrow win over Northern Colorado last week.

While the game might not move the needle in the national narrative, it could offer a lot of excitement, with two of the better quarterbacks in the Group of Five going head-to-head.

While UTSA employs a run-first offense and is averaging 215.7 yards per game on the ground—27th-best in the nation—the Roadrunners are not averse to putting it in the air.

When they have thrown it this season, Owen McCown has been impressive. The former Colorado QB is slinging it for almost 200 yards per game and has yet to throw an interception.

CSU will also want to get the ground game going in combination with their air attack. In Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, the Rams should have a QB more than capable of spreading the ball around the field, though he has struggled to find his rhythm this season.

Should the veteran QB continue to struggle, the Rams could turn the offense over to Jackson Brousseau, who got reps with the first team during the bye week.

Either way, it is a game in which the Rams need to pass effectively to win. UTSA has allowed 300.3 passing yards per game this season; only four schools have been worse so far this year.

If the Rams can’t get the passing game going, this one turns into a slog, and I am not sure they will be able to unleash it all season.

Nonetheless, I think Fowler-Nicolosi rebounds and finds his form as the Rams get a much-needed home win in a fun one.

Against the spread: Colorado State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Colorado State

Wyoming Cowboys at Colorado Buffaloes

Saturday, September 20
7:15 PM PT, ESPN

Line: Colorado –13.5
Over/Under: 44.5

The Cowboys look like a much better version of themselves than we saw in 2024, having gone 2-1, with the lone loss to Utah.

By contrast, Colorado looks like a team trying to find its way early in 2025. The Buffs opened with a competitive game against a good Georgia Tech squad, but the loss last Friday at Houston was disappointing.

While the Buffs have a myriad of questions at the QB position, and are struggling to get the ball into their offensive playmakers’ hands.

The most striking thing to me last week was Houston’s ability to shred Colorado’s defense with Dean Connors and Conner Weigman.

This season, CU is allowing 204 rushing yards per game, ranking 125th in the nation.  That could be a problem for the Buffs this week.

Wyoming has run the football productively this season. In their two wins, the Cowboys have run the ball for over 177 yards per game. Even in the loss to Utah, they ran for 121 yards.

Wyoming will be able to run it. They will need to limit the turnovers, and Kaden Anderson will need time to throw the ball.

Colorado needs to keep forcing turnovers, having created five on the season, but the CU defense is giving up way too many yards by air and by ground.

Part of that has been having 211 defensive snaps this season, ranking 109th in the nation. The offense will need to start sustaining some drives to keep the defense fresh.

Colorado has the better players and will get the win, but Wyoming keeps it within two TDs.

Against the spread: Wyoming
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Colorado

California Golden Bears at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, September 20
7:30 PM PT, CBSSN

Line: Cal –12.5
Over/Under: 48.5

Cal is off to a 3-0 start for the second straight season following their win over Minnesota last week. San Diego State is coming off a bye following a dismal performance at Washington State.

The Aztecs lost by 23 points to a Cougars squad that has not looked dominant. Cal, on the other hand, has been pretty dominant this season, outscoring their three opponents 96-32 this season.

Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele threw for 279 yards and three TDS in the win last week to earn his second ACC rookie of the week award. Those 279 came against a good Minnesota defense.

SDSU kept Stony Brook in check, but had a hard time stopping the WSU passing attack in week two. Look for the Cal passing game to thrive once again.

The key to disrupting that passing attack will be the Aztecs’ ability to create pressure. What should have been a strength of this team was lacking in the loss to WSU. SDSU failed to record a sack against the Cougars and had just three total tackles for loss.

If the Aztecs hope to pull the upset, they will need a big game from Trey White and company.

The home team has never lost in this series; that changes this week as the Bears will head home with a win in their hands.

Against the spread: Cal
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Cal

Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors

Saturday, September 20
9:00 pm PT, Spectrum

Line: Fresno State -3
Over/Under: 47.5

I have been touting the improvement of Hawaii all season long—well, early in the season, anyway. This week is the ‘Bows’ chance to really stake their claim as a contender in the Mountain West.

At 3-1, Hawaii is off to its best start since the 2019 season, which is also the last time Fresno State picked up a win on the Island.

The big issue for UH on Saturday is this: As impressed as I have been with their progress, the Bulldogs have looked like they are legit contenders to take the conference title in their final season in the league.

E.J. Warner needs to reduce his interceptions. He did not throw one last week in the win over Southern last week, but that was his first clean game. Against the three FBS opponents this season he has thrown five interceptions and no TDs.

His percentage has been good in every game, but the INTs need to be limited. Hawaii’s three interceptions this season rank  them in the top 30 nationally this season.

Fresno State has run the ball very well this season, averaging 202.5 yards per game. Hawaii allowed Stanford and Arizona to gobble up yards on the ground.  This could be a big game for Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke.

When the Rainbows have the ball, they will be facing a Fresno State defense that has been limited against the pass at times this season, notably, giving up 388 to Oregon State.

Either the Hawaii run defense or Fresno passing defense will need to step up and I think the Bulldogs will have a slight edge. I think this one stays tight but Fresno State is the team opening 4-1.

Against the spread: Fresno State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Fresno State