New Mexico Lobos at UCLA Bruins

Friday, September 12
7:00 PM PT, Big Ten Network

Line: UCLA –15.5
Over/Under: 53.5

The Bruins have to hope this week’s game in the Rose Bowl goes better than last week’s trip to Las Vegas.

UCLA finished strong against the Rebels, racking up 318 yards in the second half, but could not overcome a slow start.

New Mexico is also facing a Big Ten opponent for the second time this season, and hopes this week ends better than their season opener at Michigan.

After two games, the Lobos are 111th in the nation against the pass, surrendering 252.5 yards per outing, and rank 101st in run defense.

If Nico Iamaleava and the UCLA offense are not able to get going early and often, things are a lot worse than they appear in Westwood.

The UCLA defense has also struggled this season, allowing 421.5 yards per game, ranking 111th in the nation.

The Lobos couldn’t get much of a ground game going against Michigan, but were able to move the ball through the air.

In the win against Idaho State last week, the Lobos ran the ball at will. New Mexico’s rushing attack will be a test for the UCLA run defense, which is allowing 217 yards per game.

We will see where both of these units—the UNM offense and UCLA defense—really stand this week, and that could give us some insights into how the rest of the season may play out.

Either way, I like both offenses to move the ball and score some points. That 53.5 points total looks high, but I think it goes over.

This one seems like a 38-20 type of game that UCLA pulls away late.

Against the spread: UCLA
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: UCLA

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Nevada Wolf Pack

Saturday, September 13
2:00 PM PT, Mountain West Network

Line: Nevada –9
Over/Under: 47.5

The Wolf Pack ran into a buzzsaw at Penn State to open the season, but rebounded with a win over Sacramento State, a team that could make some noise in the FCS this season.

The Blue Raiders have also faced off with a Big Ten opponent and an FCS foe and have not fared as well this season.

Middle Tennessee fell at Wisconsin in a lopsided affair after opening the season with a 20-point loss to Austin Peay.

It is tough to glean much information on how this one will play out strategically from those results, but it is easy to see that the Wolf Pack clearly are the better team.

What Nevada was able to do effectively against the Hornets last week was move the ball on the ground, especially with Chubba Purdy. I think that will be big in this one.

The Raiders have done a decent job against backs this season, although they have allowed the big plays on the ground. Nor have they been good against the pass.

The Pack should be able to exploit that. Look for Purdy to have a big game with his arm and his legs.

Nevada has not won a nonconference home game against an FBS opponent since September 2022. This week seems like a prime opportunity to pick one up.

Against the spread: Nevada
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Nevada

Utah Utes at Wyoming Cowboys

Saturday, September 13
5:00 PM PT, CBS Sports

Line: Utah –22.5
Over/Under: 48.5

The Cowboys are off to a 2-0 start and have been getting it done with their defense, allowing only seven points, the fewest UW has allowed in the opening two games of a season since yielding six to start the 1966 campaign.

Utah is also off to a 2-0 start, and the Utes are getting it done on the offensive side of the football. Utah has averaged 53 points per game in their first two wins to start the season.

The big difference in this one is on the other side of things. While the Pokes are shutting teams down, they are scoring modestly.

The Utes, on the other hand, have been scoring in bunches and limiting opponents to less than 10 points per game. This Utah offense will be unlike anything the Cowboys have seen so far this year.

Wyoming is going to be much better this season than they were last, but we will not see that improvement on Saturday.

Utah’s offense will overpower the Cowboys, and they will not be able to mount enough consistency on offense to keep this one close.

Against the spread: Utah
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Utah

Air Force Falcons at Utah State Aggies

Saturday, September 13
6:55 PM PT, FS1

Line: Air Force –4
Over/Under: 50.0

Air Force has just one game under their belt, and it was a pretty dominant performance against Bucknell. Granted it was Bucknell, but the Falcons were able to run the ball, which was an issue during their struggles last season.

Last week Utah State was gashed by Texas A&M on the ground to the tune of 235 yards.

The Falcons were perfect in the Red Zone in the opener, getting a TD on all four trips inside the 20.

Dating back to last season, Air Force has scored on 90% of their Red Zone trips and has scored a touchdown on 70% of their trips inside the 20.

Utah State has yet to keep an opponent off the board in the Red Zone this season.

Dating to the start of last season, the Aggies are 127th in the nation in Red Zone defense with a score allowed on 93.1% of trips. They have a TD allowed rate of 67.2% in that span.

The Aggies will need to force some empty trips this week if they hope to win.

Air Force leaves Logan with a dub and a cover.

Against the spread: Air Force
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Air Force

Southern Jaguars at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 13
7:00 PM PT, Mountain West Network

Line: No Line
Over/Under: NA

The offense used some big plays to jump out to a lead before the defense capped it with Jakari Embry’s pick-six in the fourth quarter.

If the Bulldogs had a spot that was particularly troubling in the win, it was the pass defense.

The Beavers threw the ball for 388 yards, and while Fresno State forced a couple of turnovers, the bend-don’t-break approach allowed too many cracks in the foundation.

This week should offer few issues for the Bulldogs. Southern is a run-first team, and they could have a hard time moving the ball against the defense.

Fresno State is going to score a lot of points, and the Jaguars are going to have a hard time getting much of anything going on offense.

Outright winner: Fresno State

Portland State Vikings at Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors

Saturday, September 13
9:00 PM PT, Mountain West Network

Line: No Line
Over/Under: NA

Last week against Sam Houston, the Rainbow Warriors turned things over to Luke Weaver to make his first start at QB in place of injured Micah Alejado, and the offense did not miss a beat.

Timmy Chang’s rebuild at Hawai’i has not been perfect in his first four seasons, but his record against FCS opponents is 4-0, and that streak is not going to end this week.

While early indications point to an improvement for the Warriors this season, the Vikings have struggled mightily. Portland State has been outscored 161-20 in their three games thus far.

The Vikings have faced some stout competition, no question, but they have not looked competitive.

Hawai’i wins big on homecoming.

Outright winner: Hawai’i