1. Houston

Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp lead a Houston team coming off an appearance in the National Championship Game.

The Cougars went 19-1 in the Big 12 regular season last year but must replace their leading scorer and several other key contributors.

Yet, Kelvin Sampson is the top coach in the Conference right now. I wouldn’t bet against Houston.

2. BYU

Expectations for BYU are high.

AJ Dybantsa might be the best freshman in the country, and Kevin Young added a key portal addition in Baylor’s Robert Wright III.

Combine the two newcomers with the return of Richie Saunders, and you can understand why the hype is real. A return to the Sweet 16 is the floor of expectations for this year.

3. Texas Tech

JT Toppin is back for another season in Lubbock. The forward averaged 18.2 ppg last year with 9.4 rpg.

Grant McCasland’s team finished second in the league last year and made the Elite Eight.

But like many other teams in the Big 12, they must replace the production lost from key players. The freshman-to-sophomore jump of Christian Anderson will be critical in that respect.

4. Arizona

The Wildcats have several freshmen who will determine the trajectory of their season.

If Koa Peat, Brayden Burries, Dwayne Aristode, and Ivan Kharchenkov live up to their hype, then Arizona could make a run in the NCAA Tournament.

Tommy Lloyd will also lean heavily on upperclassmen Jaden Bradley, Tobe Awaka, and Motiejus Krivas.

5. Iowa State

Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson, and Milan Momcilovic are the three heavy hitters who return for Iowa State.

The Cyclones need to replace their leading scorer from last season, but have the pieces in place to do it.

Lipsey is one of the top guards in the country, and T.J. Otzelberger knows what he’s doing.

6. Kansas

The Jayhawks are led by true freshman Darryn Peterson. Ranked as the No. 1 prospect in his class by 247Sports, he is the face of Kansas basketball in 2025-26.

But KU lost nine conference games last year and must replace its top seven leading scorers.

That might not be a bad thing, but it does create plenty of questions in the preseason.

7. Kansas State

Jerome Tang hit the portal hard over the offseason. He brought in the No. 1 transfer class in the Big 12, per 247Sports, highlighted by Memphis transfer P.J. Haggerty.

The Wildcats should be good enough to make the NCAA Tournament this year.

Especially if the fan support provides a consistent home court advantage.

8. Baylor

The Bears are another Big 12 team hovering around the Bubble in the preseason.

With the No. 4 transfer class in the league, per 247Sports, Scott Drew should have a competitive group.

But Baylor lost several leaders from last year’s team and literally has an entirely new roster. The quicker they gel together, the better.

9. Cincinnati

Wes Miller should have a good team.

The Bearcats have the No. 3 transfer class in the Big 12, and expectations are high. The program hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2019, when Mick Cronin was the coach.

This might finally be the year they break through.

10. TCU

Jamie Dixon is a respectable coach who deserves the benefit of the doubt. But the Horned Frogs only have the No. 12 transfer class in the Big 12 and the No. 11 recruiting class.

That indicates a talent gap that might be difficult to overcome.

Still, Dixon has led TCU to three Tournament appearances over the last four seasons.

11. Oklahoma State

Don’t sleep on Oklahoma State. Steve Lutz is building a program in Stillwater, and the results figure to show this season.

Recruiting is on the uptick, and Lutz has the No. 7 transfer class in the Conference.

It would not be unexpected to see Ok State take a noticeable jump in Year Two.

12. West Virginia

The Mountaineers are a bit of a wildcard. Darian DeVries left to coach Indiana, and Ross Hodge was hired from North Texas.

With an entirely new roster, it’s anyone’s guess where WVU ends up.

But Hodge’s Mean Green team made the semifinals of the NIT last year and he brought in the No. 6 transfer class in the Big 12.

13. UCF

Johnny Dawkins revamped his roster through the portal over the offseason.

His transfer class is rated ninth in the league, creating some expectations to be above the bottom of the barrel in the Conference.

UCF went 7-13 in Big 12 games last season and might fall around that same mark again this year.

14. Utah

The Utah boosters got their guy. Now we get to see if he performs.

Alex Jensen reeled in the No. 11 transfer class in the Conference, overperforming the likes of TCU, Arizona State, and Colorado.

The Utes have a reasonable home court advantage that they must maximize. But the program hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2016, and it doesn’t appear to be in the cards this year.

15. Colorado

Tad Boyle utilized an interesting strategy in his roster construction.

Whether it was by choice or necessity, he brought in six freshmen as opposed to mining the transfer portal.

Three of the freshmen are rated as four-stars, per 247Sports, for what it’s worth. The lone splash in the portal was point guard Barrington Hargress, a UC Riverside transfer that averaged 20.2 ppg last year.

16. Arizona State

Bobby Hurley took an international and portal approach when building his roster for 2025-26.

Bringing in basically an entirely new team, there are many questions in Tempe at the onset of the season. First year international players are hit or miss and are rarely able to be significant contributors right away.

But if his experienced portal players hit the ground running, ASU might exceed its preseason expectations.