UCLA at Arizona State

Wednesday, January 17
6:00 pm PT, Pac-12 Network

Featuring the Pac-12’s No. 2 and No. 3 defensive units, per KenPom, the game could be a low-scoring grind.

Mick Cronin’s group gets it done with a variety of lineups. His players are probably the most well-coached in the league and it has led to the Pac-12’s second-best field goal percentage defense.

Adem Bona is a problem down low and the in-season development of forward Berke Buyuktuncel has been pivotal.

Combined with a mixture of plug-and-play guard/wing hybrids, the Bruins have a team that can adequately match up against a variety of opposing rosters.

The offense is a completely different story. But it might have turned a corner over the weekend.

The Bruins scored more than 70 points for just the second time since November 20th and the players looked more comfortable.

The pace appeared to be higher, too, which probably increased the confidence of the young roster.

Still, winning on the road is an entirely different ball game and the Sun Devils have been hot.

Slowing down Adam Miller and Jose Perez is arguably the key. Miller averages 6.3 shots from deep per game while Perez is more of an interior and mid-range scorer.

In a matchup featuring two strong defenses, the team that commits fewer turnovers and wins the rebounding margin probably comes out on top.

And if Miller or Perez are shooting with efficiency, it’s going to be difficult for UCLA to secure the upset.

USC at No. 12 Arizona

Wednesday, January 17
7:00 pm PT, ESPN

The struggles away from McKale Center are concerning for a team that starts four seniors, potentially indicating an early exit in the NCAA Tournament is in the cards.

With all the issues, a change in the starting lineup is probably due. The analytics show that the Wildcats outscore their opponents at a higher margin when Jaden Bradley is in the game.

So far, Bradley has come off the bench in every contest this season.

But that could change after Kylan Boswell played 25 minutes against Washington State while posting zero points, zero rebounds, and zero assists.

That’s just not going to get it done.

Facing a USC team that’s without its most efficient guard, Arizona must focus on defensive rebounding. The Cats are the No. 5 team in the country at securing defensive boards and this Trojan roster is not particularly efficient.

Andy Enfield’s group is seventh in the Pac-12 in field goal percentage and most of their shots come from the guards. The interior presence is tall and lanky, but not explosive on the offensive side of the ball.

That could result in plenty of missed shots that provide opportunities for fast breaks or transition buckets.

The Trojans are a very strong shot-blocking group, though. Coming into the game No. 3 in the Pac-12 in blocked shots per game, the wiry length inside is a challenge to deal with.

But if the Cats dominate the defensive glass and move the ball on offense, Tommy Lloyd’s team should win comfortably.

Dane Miller’s Game Picks

2023-24 Week 4 Pac-12 Games	Pick
UCLA at Arizona State Jan 17, 6:00 PM	Arizona State
USC at No. 12 Arizona Jan 17, 7:00 PM	Arizona
Overall Record	117-46-0 (72%)