Ohio State vs. UCLA

Saturday, December 16
Noon PT, CBS

The Buckeyes have respectable victories over Alabama and Santa Clara, yet dropped a shocker to Penn State and lost by seven to Texas A&M.

The future Big Ten opponent outclasses UCLA in several key metrics.

Ohio State scores more points per game, shoots a higher field goal percentage, has a much stronger three-point percentage, rebounds the ball at a higher rate, and averages more assists per game.

The teams are roughly even in turnovers committed and blocked shots per game, and both operate at a slow tempo.

KenPom has the Buckeyes at No. 27 overall with the No. 14 offense and No. 76 defense. As a comparison, UCLA is No. 44 overall with the No. 91 offense and No. 21 defense.

In other words, the analytics favor Ohio State.

From a personnel standpoint, the Buckeyes have a balanced offense. Four players average in double-figures and the rotation is legitimately eight deep.

The two leading scorers are guards and the other two players averaging ten points or more per game are forwards.

Felix Okpara is the lone true center at 6-foot-11 and 235 pounds. But he only averages 19.3 minutes per game. When Okpara is on the bench, Ohio State will be vulnerable in the interior.

If Aday Mara can take advantage of those opportunities, the Bruins could be in a favorable position.

But the game figures to come down to the efficiency of UCLA’s guards and the team’s ability to slow down OSU’s forwards.

Zed Key (6-foot-8, 230 pounds) and Jamison Battle (6-foot-7, 220 pounds) are the player-types that are the Bruins’ kryptonite.

Mick Cronin has been unable to coach up any answers to versatile power forwards this season and this game is likely to be more of the same. Battle, in particular, is a true wing that takes plenty of shots from three.

Battle and the Ohio State staff know UCLA’s weakness and are likely to heavily feature the senior in the game plan.

Unless Cronin comes up with an answer, Ohio State likely gets the job done.

No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 1 Arizona

Saturday, December 16
1:30 pm PT, Peacock

The bulk of the Boilermakers’ scoring production comes from four players. Big man Zach Edey is the leading scorer, but the other three are undersized guards.

Braden Smith (6-foot, 175 pounds), Lance Jones (6-foot-1, 200 pounds), and Fletcher Loyer (6-foot-4, 180 pounds) do not match up well with Arizona.

The Wildcats have five position-less guards that can play any spot from the one through the three.

Caleb Love (6-foot-4, 205 pounds), Kylan Boswell (6-foot-2, 200 pounds), Pelle Larsson (6-foot-6, 215 pounds), KJ Lewis (6-foot-4, 205 pounds), and Jaden Bradley (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) can all freely rotate between multiple positions.

Especially against a backcourt comprised of the undersized Smith, Loyer, and Jones.

Jones might get the first crack at Love, a battle where he is giving up three inches and a substantial skill discrepancy.

At the same time, Loyer is going to be matched up with Larsson, who has a height and significant strength advantage.

Of all the high-major teams Arizona has faced this season, Purdue has the weakest backcourt. By far.

That’s a problem facing an Arizona team that arguably has the top backcourt in the country.

Look for Love and Larsson, in particular, to play their most aggressive games of the season. Both can dominate their one-on-one battles and can eat around the rim.

Arizona’s offense is designed to get the ball into the hands of cutters that finish around the rim.

Larsson and Love figure to penetrate from the opening possession and carve up Purdue in the paint. At the same time, both can hit their shots from the perimeter if the Boilermakers give them space on the outside.

The result should be an Arizona team that wins the rebounding margin on both sides of the floor and posts a notable advantage in assists.

As for the battles between the power forwards, Purdue has three options in Trey Kaufman-Renn, Caleb Furst, and Mason Gillis.

Arizona’s Keshad Johnson matches up well with Gillis and decently against Kaufman-Renn, but could struggle against the 6-foot-10 Furst.

Tommy Lloyd has shown a willingness to play small and there could even be stretches with Larsson doing time at the PF position.

But if any of the three Purdue forwards has a strong game, it would likely create an X-Factor that could tip the scales.

At the center spot, there’s no denying that Zach Edey has an advantage.

Still, Lloyd has Oumar Ballo and Mo Krivas to rotate against him. Both have the size and strength to at least prevent Edey from having a monster game.

If the UA centers can force Edey to be somewhat inefficient, the Cats should be in a good spot.

The key, though, is the matchups between the backcourts.

On paper, Arizona has a significant advantage that should translate into the game. Zach Edey could go off, but the UA guards figure to make it a long day for the Boilermakers backcourt on both sides of the ball.

Dane Miller’s Game Picks

Game	Pick
Ohio State vs. UCLA	Ohio State
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 1 Arizona	Arizona