Arizona State at Iowa State

Saturday, November 1
10:00 a.m. PT, TNT

With only two losses in conference play, the Sun Devils still have a shot at making the Big 12 Championship Game and the Playoff. But a defeat to the Cyclones would cut off any remaining chance.

The status of Jordyn Tyson remains doubtful, while Sam Leavitt is reportedly out for the game. That means Jeff Sims will take over as the starter, a scenario that ASU fans know generally doesn’t end well.

To pull off the upset, the defense will need to have its best game of the year. The Arizona State defensive line is strong and capable of disrupting Rocco Becht. But the secondary will need to force multiple turnovers.

And the offense must convert those extra possessions into points.

On offense, the running backs need to step up to the plate. Sims is a reasonable threat to run and could create hesitancy within the ISU back seven.

If the ASU offensive line can get the necessary push to open up lanes, the run game could do enough damage to keep the score close.

But any turnovers from Sims could be devastating, and any special teams errors would be costly.

It’s not impossible, yet Arizona State faces an uphill climb.

Arizona at Colorado

Saturday, November 1
4:00 p.m. PT, FS1

The fanbase is already rumbling for regime change, and the media in Tucson is teetering near the edge.

A loss to Colorado would send the loudest voices over the line, starting the drumbeat of pressure on Athletic Director Desireé Reed-Francois to make a change.

That’s just how it goes when you’ve only won three conference games in nearly two seasons despite having the talent to win more.

Colorado might not have a good rushing attack. But the Buffaloes have the receivers to burn Arizona’s defense.

The key battle to watch is the line of scrimmage. If the Wildcats’ front seven can get into the backfield and disrupt whichever CU quarterback plays, the chances of winning are stronger.

But if the UA defensive line and linebackers don’t get consistent pressure and the Colorado quarterback is given time to throw, his receivers will take advantage.

At the same time, turnovers and missed field goals could be devastating for the Arizona offense.

The Buffs are a capable team at Folsom Field, and the Cats will need to be at their best in all three phases to secure the victory.

No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah

Saturday, November 1
7:15 p.m. PT, ESPN

Whether the fanbase is willing to admit it or not, Utah football is on a downward trend. Sure, the Utes beat up on the mid to lower tier of the Big 12.

But they haven’t yet shown they can handle the elite teams in the Conference.

And this season, Cincinnati is elite. If Utah beats the Bearcats, the narrative around the program will change.

Yet, there’s a flip side to this equation: UC is vying to become a perennial power in the league.

Scott Satterfield’s program would skyrocket with a win at Rice-Eccles. Cincinnati made the Playoff in 2021, but has found limited success since joining the Big 12.

This game means as much to the trajectory of UC football as it does to Utah.

But enough with the big picture. This game will be won and lost in the trenches.

If the Utah lines establish themselves, then the Utes will win. It’s a good old-fashioned war up front. The more physical team will have the advantage.

The X-Factor, however, is Brendan Sorsby’s ability to run. Averaging 6.2 yards per rush with seven total touchdowns on the ground, he is the ultimate neutralizer for any advantage the Utes might have on the line.

It’s the type of game where an interception generated by Utah’s secondary could be the deciding factor.

And whatever you do, don’t read into the spread. This game is going to come down to the last possession in the fourth quarter.

The Rest of the Big 12

Texas Tech travels to Manhattan to play Kansas State. A Red Raider loss would be very damaging to the Big 12’s hope of getting multiple teams into the Playoff.

The Wildcats are playing better than they have all season and their home-field advantage is elite. But TTU can deliver a message to the rest of the country with a resounding win. Margins of victory matter.

Perceptions matter.

Everyone outside of the K-State fanbase should be cheering for a convincing win by Texas Tech.

Houston hosts West Virginia in the definition of a trap game. The Cougars have been playing great, and the Mountaineers are a bad football team.

That combination invariably leads to underestimating and overlooking.

It’s a culture test for Willie Fritz’s team. He appears to be a great coach and a blowout Houston win would directly underscore his talent.

Let’s see just how good of a coach Fritz really is.

Baylor takes on UCF in an early morning game on ESPNU. The 9:00am PT start is odd for a game in Texas, but that might be the price to pay to avoid the ESPN+ treatment.

The spread is just over a field goal, which feels a bit off. The Bears have failed to meet some outside expectations this year and are on a two-game losing streak.

Yet, Central Florida hasn’t won a road game this year.

Look for Baylor to get the job done by at least a touchdown.

Kansas plays Oklahoma State in Lawrence on ESPN+. The spread is wide and nobody is expecting the Cowboys to make it competitive.

It should be an automatic win for the Jayhawks, bringing them one win away from bowl eligibility.

Maybe in the not-so-distant future, OSU will get its program together.

From a national narrative point of view, the sooner that happens the better for the Big 12.