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2024 Week 9 Big 12 Football Previews, Best Bets, Picks

> Dane Miller breaks down the top contests with what's at stake & what both teams must do to win


  By Dane Miller, SuperWest Sports

October 24, 2024



This week’s Big 12 slate features seven games, all on Saturday.

I went 6-2 in Week Eight, bringing my overall season record to 45-20, good for a 69% success rate.

For Week Nine, I preview all seven contests, breaking down what’s at stake, and highlighting what each team must do to win.

My picks against the spread and straight-up are summarized in the table below.

Oklahoma State at Baylor

Saturday, October 26
12:30 pm PT, ESPN+

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Baylor -6.5

What’s at Stake: Oklahoma State showed signs of life against BYU. The season might be saved if the Pokes find a way to beat Baylor.

The Bears, on the other hand, just throttled Texas Tech and are entering the easier stretch of their season.

Another Baylor win would make bowl eligibility more likely than not.

Why Oklahoma State Wins: The offensive line gets the push needed to establish a ground game, Alan Bowman runs the ball enough to keep the Baylor defense honest, and the front seven prevents Sawyer Robertson from creating chunk plays on the ground.

Why Baylor Wins: The front seven gets enough pressure on Bowman to speed up his decision-making process, the secondary steps up to make plays, and Robertson is effective when running.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Oklahoma State
Straight Up: Baylor

Texas Tech at TCU

Saturday, October 26
12:30 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: TCU -6.5

What’s at Stake: Texas Tech has some questions to answer.

The blowout loss to Baylor was unexpected and throws the team in doubt. Beating TCU on the road would be a respectable response.

For the Horned Frogs, the program has some momentum after beating Utah but would give it all back with a loss at home.

Why Texas Tech Wins: The run game is established and the defense wins the turnover margin.

Why TCU Wins: The timing of the offense is in sync, Josh Hoover executes the correct throw, and the running backs convert short-yardage plays for first downs.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Texas Tech
Straight Up: Texas Tech

West Virginia at ArizonaArizona football Pac-12

Saturday, October 26
4:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Arizona -3.5

What’s at Stake: The trajectory of the season is hanging in the balance for both programs.

Arizona and West Virginia have both underperformed expectations. Each team comes in with a 3-4 record and personnel issues.

The winner will have a chance of salvaging its season.

Why West Virginia Wins: The West Virginia wide receivers catch the ball in open space, break tackles, and the run game is established.

Why Arizona Wins: The offensive line gives Noah Fifita enough time to make throws and the defense contains WVU’s RPO plays.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: West Virginia
Straight Up: West Virginia

Utah at Houston

Saturday, October 26
4:00 pm PT, ESPN+

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Utah -3.5

What’s at Stake: Utah’s season is on the brink of collapse.

Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig resigned after the TCU game with the offense in shambles.

A defeat to bottom-dweller Houston might be the Utes’ most embarrassing loss of the season.

Why Utah Wins: Isaac Wilson is unleashed to throw the ball all over the field, the offensive line provides the protection, and the defense shuts down Houston’s run game.

Why Houston Wins: The front seven contains the Utah running backs and the offense doesn’t turn the ball over.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Utah
Straight Up: Utah

Cincinnati at Colorado

Saturday, October 26
7:15 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado -5.5

What’s at Stake: The Big 12’s Game of the Day is in Boulder. The Buffaloes have looked strong and are trending up at the right time.

But the same can be said for Cincinnati. The Bearcats have two losses by a combined four points.

Both teams are 5-2 and each still has a path to the Playoff. The winner will have a much stronger chance of getting to the Big 12 Championship Game.

Why Cincinnati Wins: The defensive line gets pressure on Shedeur Sanders and the secondary prevents the CU receivers from gashing them after the catch.

Why Colorado Wins: The line provides the time needed for Sanders, the run game is reasonably effective, and the defense disrupts the timing of plays with penetration into the backfield.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Colorado
Straight Up: Colorado

Best Bets
No. 11 BYU at UCF

Saturday, October 26
12:30 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UCF -2.5

What’s at Stake: BYU’s chances of making the Playoff would take a hit if they lose to UCF. The close game against Oklahoma State was eyebrow-raising and the Cougars need to send a message.

For the Knights, it’s the team’s second chance in a row to take down an undefeated conference opponent.

A UCF victory would snap the program’s four-game losing streak.

Why BYU Wins: Jake Retzlaff is back to his normal self, running the ball for positive yardage and connecting with his receivers under pressure. The offensive line wins the physicality battle in the trenches.

Why UCF Wins: The defensive line finds ways to get pressure on Retzlaff and the front seven stops the run.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: BYU
Straight Up: BYU

Kansas at No. 16 Kansas State

Saturday, October 26
4:00 pm PT, ESPN2

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Kansas State -10

What’s at Stake: Kansas State has won 15 straight games against Kansas. The last time the Jayhawks won was in 2008.

But the margin of victory was close last season and Kansas has momentum after crushing Houston.

The Wildcats need the win to stay in position for a shot at the Playoff.

Why Kansas Wins: The run game is established and Jalon Daniels is efficient when passing.

Why Kansas State Wins: The lines on both sides of the ball win the trenches, the secondary creates interceptions, and Avery Johnson makes the correct decisions when passing.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Kansas State
Straight Up: Kansas State


Dane Miller’s Big 12 Game Picks

2024 Week 9 Big 12 Games


Straight-Up Picks

Oklahoma State at Baylor
Oct 26, 12:30 pm PT

Baylor
Texas Tech at TCU
Oct 26, 12:30 pm PT

Texas Tech
No. 11 BYU at UCF
Oct 26, 12:30 pm PT

BYU
 West Virginia at Arizona
Oct 26, 4:00 pm PT

West Virginia
Utah at Houston
Oct 26, 4:00 pm PT

Utah
Kansas at No. 16 Kansas State
Oct 26, 4:00 pm PT

Kansas State
Cincinnati at Colorado
Oct 26, 7:15 pm PT

Colorado
 Miller’s Overall Big 12 Record 45-20 (69%)

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