Fresno State at Nevada

Friday, October 18
7:30 pm PT, CBS Sports

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Fresno State –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

The good news for the Bulldogs is that despite sitting at 3-3 on the season, they only have one conference loss.

The Wolf Pack look to keep the momentum going after knocking off Oregon State last week.

Fresno State is 8-4 in the last 12 meetings in the series

Fresno State wins if…Mikey Keene can produce and limit the interceptions. In the last two games—both losses—Keene has been picked off four times.

In fact, in the three losses this season he has thrown six interceptions and just three TDs compared to two picks and five TDs in the three wins.

Nevada wins if…they can churn out yards on the ground. The Wolf Pack are 17th in the nation running the football. Fresno State is good against the run, but not great. If Nevada can find success on the ground, they should score points.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Nevada
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Fresno State

Wyoming at San Jose State

Saturday, October 19
1:00 pm PT, Mountain West Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: San Jose State –11.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

The Spartans are 8-1 in their last nine conference games and are playing quality football at the moment.

The favorite is 16-0 in the last 16 games at CEFCU Stadium while Wyoming is 1-19 in their last 20 as a road dog.

Will both of those trends continue?

Wyoming wins if…the offense can continue to produce. The last two weeks the Cowboys offense has found some life. The Spartans will offer a much stiffer test than either Air Force or SDSU did in the last two games.

San Jose State wins if…they can keep forcing turnovers. SJSU has forced 15 turnovers this season, which is good for third in the nation. Wyoming is not going to be able to play catchup. Force errors early and put pressure on the Cowboys to score.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: San Jose State

Colorado State at Air Force

Saturday, October 19
5:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado State –7.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

The winner of this one walks away with the Ram-Falcon Trophy and bragging rights for the year.

The Falcons have won the last seven in the series, but this season things seem much different.

Colorado State wins if…they can find players to step up and come close to matching the production of Tory Horton.

The playmaker is done for the season after a knee injury against San Jose State. The Rams are going to need to find production elsewhere.

Air Force wins if…they can run the football. The Falcons are coming off their best rushing game of the season. Was that a result of playing the New Mexico defense or is the ground game starting to click?

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Colorado State
Points total:  Under
Outright winner: Colorado State

UNLV at Oregon State

Saturday, October 19
7:00 pm PT, The CW

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UNLV –7.5
Over/Under Point Total: 61.5

The Rebels have won five straight road games for the first time ever. The job Barry Odom has done in his year and a half in Las Vegas can’t be understated.

OSU has not lost a home game to a team not named Washington or Oregon since September 2022.

UNLV wins if…they can get the Beavers off the field on third down. OSU is fourth in the nation on the money down converting 55.6% of the time. UNLV is allowing a conversion on just 37.1% of third downs.

Oregon State wins if…they don’t turn the ball over. The Rebels lead the nation with a turnover margin of +2.0 per game and their 2.5 takeaways per game are the second most in the nation.  OSU is 82nd in the nation with a margin of –0.17

—My Picks—
Against the spread: UNLV
Points total:  Over
Outright winner: UNLV

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New Mexico at Utah State

Saturday, October 19
1:00 pm PT, truTV

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: New Mexico –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 78.5

This game could be a lot of fun to watch if these two teams are running up and down the field—and they most likely will be.

Both are potent offensively, averaging 450+ yards per game, and both seem to view defense as optional ranking 131st and 132nd in the nation in total defense.

New Mexico wins if…they get some takeaways. The Lobos have not been able to stop anyone this season, but they have forced turnovers. Utah State is 124th in the nation with a TO margin of –1.33 per game.

Utah State wins if…they can stop the running game and, specifically, contain Devon Dampier when he tucks it away. When the UNM QB gets loose in space the Aggies will have to limit those runs.

USU has allowed 200+ yards on the ground in four games this season, the Lobos are 22nd in the nation on the ground.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points total: Over
Outright winner: New Mexico

Hawai’i at Washington State

Saturday, October 19
12:30 pm PT, The CW

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington State –19.5
Over/Under Point Total: 55.5

Hawai’i is still looking for their first win of the season over an FBS opponent.

Homecoming in Pullman should be a happy one.

Hawai’i wins if…they can get a ground game going. Brayden Schaeger is good and will throw for a lot of yards, but sooner or later they are going to need to get some kind of running game going.

Averaging 80 yards on the ground per outing is not going to cut it, especially against a good opponent like the Cougars.

Washington State wins if…they take care of the football. The Cougs are the far better team in this one. The only way they lose is if they turn it over often.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Washington State

Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-12 Game Picks

2024 Week 8 MW + Pac-2 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Fresno State at Nevada Oct 18, 7:30 pm PT	Fresno State
Hawai’i at Washington State Oct 19, 12:30 pm PT	Washington State
Wyoming at San Jose State Oct 19, 1:00 pm PT	San Jose State
New Mexico at Utah State Oct 19, 1:00 pm PT	New Mexico
Colorado State at Air Force Oct 19, 5:00 pm PT	Colorado State
UNLV at Oregon State Oct 19, 7:00 pm PT	UNLV
Vilardo’s Overall MW + Pac-12 Record	50-9 (85%)

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