No. 2 Oregon at Purdue

Friday, October 18
5:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon –27.5
Over/Under Point Total: 60.5

Purdue is coming off one of their best outings of the season last week.

The Boilermakers may be struggling but overlook them at your own peril.

Purdue has collected three wins over teams ranked in the top three over the last six seasons. The Boilers are 7-11 against ranked opponents since 2018.

Oregon wins if…they don’t let the Purdue offense get rolling. PU racked up 382 yards of offense in the second half last week, by far their best outing of the season. Oregon can’t let the offense stay hot.

Purdue wins if…they can put some pressure on Dillon Gabriel. Well, that would give them a chance. The Ducks have not allowed a sack in any of the last four games. If the Boilers allow Gabriel time to work, he will chew them up.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Oregon

Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana

Saturday, October 19
9:00 am PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Indiana –6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 50.5

The momentum has brought just the ninth home sellout this century for Indiana—the Hoosiers are 0-8 in those games.

The Huskers will be their toughest opponent to date.

Nebraska wins if…the offense can create some big plays. The Huskers have had just 27 scrimmage plays of 20+ yards this season, the same number as Iowa. This one could turn into a conservative defensive struggle. Nebraska will need some explosive plays.

Indiana wins if…the offensive line holds up. Indiana has allowed just six sacks all season. The one sack allowed per game is the 14th-best in the nation. Nebraska’s defensive front will be the toughest they have seen so far.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Indiana
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Indiana

Wisconsin at Northwestern

Saturday, October 19
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Wisconsin –7
Over/Under Point Total: 41.5

The Wildcats’ offense is improving and giving their defense some respite.

The Badgers are starting to lean on the ground game led by Tawee Walker.

Wisconsin wins if…they can limit Jack Lausch’s ability to improvise. The ‘Cats offense has looked better with Lausch and a lot of that has been his ability to make something out of nothing. Keep him in check and Wisconsin will get the win.

Northwestern wins if…they keep forcing turnovers. That was the formula for success last season, and it worked against Maryland last week. Force miscues and capitalize on good field position.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Northwestern
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Wisconsin

No. 24 Michigan at No. 22 Illinois

Saturday, October 19
12:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Michigan –3
Over/Under Point Total: 43.5

Michigan is coming off a bye week after falling in their first road trip of the season at Washington.

The two questions: Was the second half last week a fluke or a cause for concern for the Illini defense? Did Michigan figure anything out at the QB spot during their bye?

Michigan wins if…they get production from their RBs. The Wolverines have their QB issues, but the RBs are good. Feed them early and often and wear down the Illini defense.

Illinois wins if…Luke Altmyer makes plays. The QB has been very good this season with 14 TDs and just one INT. Michigan is third in the nation against the run. The Illini will need to lean on their QB to make plays and take care of the ball in this one.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Michigan
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan

Iowa at Michigan State

Saturday, October 19
4:30 pm PT, NBC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa –6
Over/Under Point Total: 40.5

Iowa’s offense averaged 14.6 points per game in conference play last season. This season that figure is at 26.

The Hawkeyes are 10-4 in road games since 2021, the Spartans are 1-5 in their last six home conference games.

Iowa wins if…they keep running the football. Iowa is 13th in the nation running the ball for 226 yards per outing. MSU has had 35 missed tackles in their last two games. This could be a big game for the Hawkeyes on the ground.

Michigan State wins if…they hang onto the ball. The Spartans have turned it over 14 times in their six games. Iowa will punish you for miscues and MSU can’t afford any giveaways in this one.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Iowa
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Iowa

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UCLA at Rutgers

Saturday, October 19
9:00 am PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Rutgers –4.5
Over/Under Point Total: 40.5

Two of those wins have come from teams visiting Pasadena.

I don’t see the Bruins flipping the script on their trip to New Jersey.

UCLA wins if…they can force some turnovers. The Bruins are near the bottom of the nation this season with just four turnovers forced. Rutgers is 20th in the nation with only five turnovers. UCLA needs to create extra possessions in this one.

Rutgers wins if…they can run the football. The Bruins have had their struggles this season, stopping the run has not been one of them. RU is averaging 237.8 rushing yards in their wins and just 123 per game in their two losses.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Rutgers
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Rutgers

USC at Maryland

Saturday, October 19
1:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: USC –7.5
Over/Under Point Total: 56.5

Well, it should look a little better after this week as Oregon should add another win to that total on Friday.

And look for the Trojans to do the same on Saturday.

USC wins if…Miller Moss can get things done. The Terps have been good against the run this season and things could be difficult for Woody Marks and the ground attack.

Maryland has been pretty bad against the pass, though, and Moss and his playmakers on the outside should have a field day.

Maryland wins if…they can limit the big plays, especially in the passing game. The Terps have allowed 15 plays of 30+ yards this season with 14 coming through the air. Those 14 plays rank 127th in the nation.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: USC
Points total: USC
Outright winner: USC

Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks

2024 Week 8 Big 10 Games	Straight-Up Picks
No. 2 Oregon at Purdue Oct 18, 5:00 pm PT	Oregon
Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana Oct 19, 9:00 am PT	Indiana
Wisconsin at Northwestern Oct 19, 9:00 am PT	Wisconsin
UCLA at Rutgers Oct 19, 9:00 am PT	Rutgers
No. 24 Michigan at No. 22 Illinois Oct 19, 12:30 pm PT	Michigan
USC at Maryland Oct 19, 1:00 pm PT	USC
Iowa at Michigan State Oct 19, 4:30 pm PT	Iowa
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record	48-15 (76%)

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