Michigan State at No. 6 Oregon

Friday, October 4
6:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon -24
Over/Under Point Total: 52.5

The Ducks may not be all that familiar with their home-opening Big Ten opponent but they know plenty about Michigan State’s new coach, former Oregon State headman Jonathan Smith.

While leading the Beavers, Smith collected two wins over the Ducks but went 0-3 in Autzen Stadium.

MSU is in the middle of a brutal stretch with this one coming a week after a visit from Ohio State and ahead of Iowa and Michigan.

Michigan State wins if…Aidan Chiles can get things going. The first-year starter has shown signs of brilliance but also has thrown eight interceptions while completing 56% of his passes. The Spartans need more consistency from their young QB.

Oregon wins if…they make plays in the backfield. The MSU offensive line is banged up and has struggled this season, ranking 103rd in the nation with 6.2 TFLs allowed per game.

This type of game allows the Duck defensive front to pin their ears back and get after it.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Michigan State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Oregon

Purdue at Wisconsin

Saturday, October 5
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Wisconsin -14
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5

Both teams had disappointing games last week—more specifically, disappointing second halves.

The Badgers had a lead on USC early while the Boilermakers played Nebraska tough for the opening 30 minutes.

Wisconsin owns a 17-game winning streak over Purdue.

Purdue wins if…the offense looks drastically better under Jason Simmons. Graham Harrell was fired on Sunday and Simmons will take over as interim OC. The Boilers have struggled to get anything going on offense this season. We’ll see if the change helps.

Wisconsin wins if…they run the football. The Badgers don’t have to completely revert to the UW of yesteryear, but Purdue is atrocious against the run, allowing 242 yards on the ground per outing. Run the ball and put this game to bed.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Wisconsin
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Wisconsin

UCLA at No. 7 Penn State

Saturday, October 5
9:00 am PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Penn State -27.5
Over/Under Point Total: 44.5

Things don’t get any easier for the Bruins.

Struggling UCLA must now travel across the country to play the nation’s seventh-ranked team. And for good measure, the game kicks off at 9 am Pacific Time. Good luck UCLA—you’ll need it.

Oh, and by the way, Penn State is the only FBS team to start 4-0 in each of the last four seasons.

UCLA wins if…they can get the running game going. The Bruin offense has not been good, and the running has been non-existent. They need to get it going at some point.

PSU has held 14 of their last 15 Big Ten opponents under 100 yards rushing, so it will be a tall order. However, against the pass, the Lions are even better this season.

Penn State wins if…Drew Allar continues to take care of the ball. The Junior QB has only been picked off once this season. As long as the Nittany Lions don’t turn it over, they will be fine in this one.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Penn State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Penn State

Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State

Saturday, October 5
12:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ohio State -19.5
Over/Under Point Total: 44.5

Iowa enters this meeting with the Buckeyes at 3-1, receiving votes in the AP Top 25 Poll, but unranked.

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day is 42-0 against unranked opponents, while Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz has 11 wins over Top 10 opponents in his time at Iowa, going 3-10 in such games on the road.

Iowa wins if…Cade McNamara can step up his play. The QB was supposed to be a huge boost for the Hawkeyes this season, but so far, he has been pretty blah. In four games he has two interceptions and just three TDs while averaging under 150 yards per game.

But while Iowa needs better play at quarterback, McNamara is the only active QB in the Big Ten with a win over Ohio State on his resume.

Ohio State wins if…they shut down the Hawkeyes’ running game. Iowa ranks 10th in the nation, running for 250 per game. Ohio State is third nationally against the run, allowing 61.8 yards per game.

If the Buckeyes can force Iowa to rely on the pass, they will win this one comfortably.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Ohio State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State

Rutgers at Nebraska

Saturday, October 5
1:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Nebraska -7
Over/Under Point Total: 41

Rutgers is 4-0 for the first time since 2012 and looks like a legitimate force. A trip to Lincoln this week will be their toughest test of the season so far.

The Huskers also appear to be back and—other than the overtime hiccup to Illinois—have looked like a solid contender. This will be their stiffest test of the season.

We will know a lot more about both teams at this time next week and whoever wins will be in good shape for the stretch run.

Bonus stat: This is the only scheduled game in the nation this season to include a pair of head coaches who were also head coaches in the NFL.

Rutgers wins if…Athan Kaliakmanis has himself a game. The Huskers should try to take away the Scarlets Knights’ rushing attack. Opportunities will be there in the passing game, but will Kaliakmanis and Rutgers be able to capitalize on them?

Nebraska wins if…they can contain the Rutgers’ rushing attack. The Huskers don’t have to completely take the run game away, and I don’t think they’ll be able to, but they can’t let Kyle Monangai run wild. The Huskers are 15th nationally against the run.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Rutgers
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Nebraska

No. 10 Michigan at Washington

Saturday, October 5
4:30 pm PT, NBC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Michigan -2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 41.5

Michigan avoided a second-half collapse last week while Washington almost pulled off a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback at Rutgers.

This rematch from the National Title Game will look completely different than the matchup we saw in January.

Michigan wins if…Kalel Mullings continues to carry the load. He is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games. Washington has struggled to stop the run in their losses this season.

The Wolvereines should be fine if they can duplicate the game plan Rutgers had last week.

Washington wins if…they get a lead early. The Wolverines are running the ball nearly 63% of the time. The passing attack is non-existent with Alex Orji under center. Make Michigan throw the ball.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Michigan
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan

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No. 23 Indiana at Northwestern

Saturday, October 5
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Indiana -13.5
Over/Under Point Total: 41.5

Indiana is 5-0 for just the third time ever and the first time since 1967.

Northwestern is 2-2 coming off a bye week after the offense produced nothing against Washington.

Indiana wins if…they can contain the Northwestern front seven. The Wildcats have struggled this season at times but the front seven is solid. The Cats are 25th in the nation with 3.0 sacks per game. This will be the stiffest test yet for the Indiana offensive line.

Northwestern wins if…they can create turnovers. The Wildcats had success last season by creating turnovers in bunches. To win this one they will need to get back to that formula.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Indiana
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Indiana

No. 11 USC at Minnesota

Saturday, October 5
4:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: USC -8.5
Over/Under Point Total: 51.5

Both teams mounted second-half comebacks vs. Michigan after being down early, though both fell short.

That, along with the color scheme on the uniforms, is where the similarities end.

USC’s offense is explosive while the Gophers want to pound the ball. Minnesota wants to beat you with their defense, while the Trojans sometimes forget that defense is not optional.

USC wins if…they can throw the ball. Minnesota leads the nation in passing defense allowing just 96.8 yards per game—but that includes games against Michigan and Iowa, where throwing is optional.

If the Trojans can throw the ball and make it a track meet the Gophers will not be able to keep up.

Minnesota wins if…they can get production on the ground. Minnesota’s identity needs to be running the ball. USC struggled to stop the run against LSU and Michigan. Last week Wisconsin ran the ball in the opening half before falling off.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: USC
Points total: Under
Outright winner: USC

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Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks

2024 Week 6 Big 10 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Michigan St at No. 6 Oregon Oct 4, 6:00 pm PT	Oregon
Purdue at Wisconsin Oct 5, 9:00 am PT	Wisconsin
UCLA at No. 7 Penn State Oct 5, 9:00 am PT	Penn State
Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State Oct 5, 12:30 pm PT	Ohio State
No. 23 Indiana at Northwestern Oct 5, 12:30 pm PT	Indiana
Rutgers at Nebraska Oct 5, 1:00 pm PT	Nebraska
No. 10 Michigan at Washington Oct 5, 4:30 pm PT	Michigan
No. 11 USC at Minnesota Oct 5, 4:30 pm PT	USC
Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record	38-10 (79%)

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