San Diego State at No. 15 Boise State

Friday, November 1
5:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Boise State –23.5
Over/Under Point Total: 56.5

It was their fourth straight game decided by three points or less, the longest such streak in the nation and the longest of its kind in MW history.

Coming off a big win at UNLV, the Broncos should snap that streak, provided they don’t take SDSU for granted.

San Diego State wins if…Trey White can create havoc in the BSU backfield. Actually, it may not matter in the outcome, but what he is doing needs more recognition. The edge rusher is off to a historic start averaging 1.64 sacks per game…the NCAA record for a season is 1.71, set by Terrell Suggs in 2001.

At the current rate, White would finish with the third most prolific season in FBS history.

Boise State wins if…they stick the ball in Ashton Jeanty’s belly a bunch. The Aztecs are 86th against the run. Jeanty should feast on that defense. And the more times you run, the fewer opportunities you give the nation’s leading sack man.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Boise State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Boise State

Air Force at No. 21 Army

Saturday, November 2
9:00 am PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Army –22.5
Over/Under Point Total: 41.5

Last year’s 20-point win for Army was an anomaly as the prior five meetings were one-score affairs.

All that being said, the difference between the teams this season is stark. Army has covered six of their seven games while the Falcons are 0-7 ATS.

Air Force wins if…they can stop the Army rushing attack. The Knights lead the nation in rushing this season while the Falcons are 119th against the run. This one could be difficult for Air Force.

Army wins if…the defense can dominate, and they should be able to. Army has gotten it done on that side of the ball this year, ranking eighth in the nation. Against the run, Army is third nationally. Air Force is going to have trouble moving the football.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Army
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Army

Hawai’i at Fresno State

Saturday, November 2
4:00 pm PT, Spectrum

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Fresno State –13.5
Over/Under Point Total: 48.5

Fresno State has put together back-to-back victories and takes some momentum into November after their win over San Jose State.

Hawai’i wins if…they keep the running game going. The Warriors ran for 242 yards in the win last week, their highest single output since 2021.

Fresno State wins if…they don’t turn the ball over. The Bulldogs are the better team and should win, but they can’t give it away. In their five wins they are +8 in the TO department but -5 in their three losses.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Fresno State

Best Bets

Wyoming at New Mexico

Saturday, November 2
1:00 pm PT, truTV

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: New Mexico –7.5
Over/Under Point Total: 59.5

The Lobos continue to be one of the most improved teams in the nation and can get to 4-5 with a win—and start sniffing a bowl bid.

New Mexico will light up the scoreboard while the Cowboys’ offense is a bit deficient at times.

Wyoming wins if…they can create some offense. UNM is 131st in the nation, allowing 39.8 points per game. UW averages just 18.1 points per game, 118th in the nation. If they can’t score this week, they can’t score on anyone.

New Mexico wins if…they can win third down. The Lobos are 31st in the nation, converting on third downs at 44.7%. Wyoming is fifth defensively with opponents converting on just 27.7%.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points total: Under
Outright winner: New Mexico

Colorado State at Nevada

Saturday, November 2
5:00 pm PT, CBS Sports

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado State –1.5
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5

Nevada is coming off a bad loss at Hawaii, having lost two in a row, and is looking for their first conference win.

The 1.5 points should be really appealing, but something feels like a trap.

The score is going to stay low and that is what makes this one of my best bets.  CSU gets the win and covers the 1.5. But beware.

Colorado State wins if…they run the football. The Rams have rushed the ball well all season, and during their three-game win streak, have averaged 194.3 per game. Nevada has allowed 200+ on the ground in two of the last three.

Nevada wins if…they can get the passing game working. The Rams have been stout against the run in the last three games. The Pack have struggled to throw the ball. They need the passing game to open up the ground attack if they want to be successful on Saturday.

They cannot be one-dimensional against CSU.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Colorado State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Colorado State

Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-12 Game Picks

2024 Week 10 MW + Pac-2 Games	Straight-Up Picks
SDSU at No. 15 Boise State Nov 1, 5:00 pm PT	Boise State
Air Force at No. 21 Army Nov 2, 9:00 am PT	Army
Wyoming at New Mexico Nov 2, 1:00 pm PT	New Mexico
Hawai’i at Fresno State Nov 2, 4:00 pm PT	Fresno State
Colorado State at Nevada Nov 2, 5:00 pm PT	Colorado State
Vilardo’s Overall MW + Pac-12 Record	61-11 (85%)

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