By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
October 31, 2024
The Big Ten features an eight-game this weekend.
We have a couple of trophies up for grabs this week as Indiana and Michigan State meet in East Lansing for the Old Brass Spittoon and Iowa and Wisconsin battle for the Heartland Trophy in Iowa City.
We also get the renewal of an old Pac-12 matchup with USC and Washington tangling in Seattle.
But the biggest one on the schedule this week is in State College as Penn State will attempt to erase prior demons and finally knock off a highly-ranked opponent.
As we keep a watch on the two-time zone travel records, only UCLA will be a big traveler this week as they head to Nebraska.
Last week Illinois, Rutgers, and Washington all fell in the long road trips, bringing the conference to a combined 5-14 when traveling two+ time zones for a conference game this season.
I went 7-1 last week, bringing my overall conference record to 59-20 (75%).
Here is a look at week ten in the Big Ten and how I think the week will play out.
Northwestern at Purdue
Saturday, November 2
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Northwestern –1.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5
Defensively the Boilers are allowing 38.4 points per game, fifth worst in the nation.
The Wildcats have lost four of their last five and have been embarrassed in their last two losses.
Northwestern wins if…they force turnovers. Since the start of last season, the Wildcats are 11-10. In the wins, they are +18 in turnovers. In the losses, the TO margin is -2.
Purdue wins if…the defense can make some plays. As noted, the Boilermakers defense has been bad. The Wildcats are not an offensive juggernaut. If Purdue can get some stops they could end up outscoring the Cats.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Northwestern
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Northwestern
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State
Saturday, November 2
9:00 am PT, FOX
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ohio State –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 46.5
If he plays and is healthy, I really like the over. If he does not play, then Penn State could have trouble scoring.
The health of the starting QB may also dictate if James Franklin can finally get a win in a big game.
Penn State is just 3-17 against top 10 opponents under Franklin and 12-26 against ranked foes during that time.
Ohio State wins if…Will Howard can shine. The Kansas State transfer has been good this season, completing 74% of his passes with a 17-4 TD/INT ratio. He had a big game in the loss at Oregon, and he’ll need another one in this game.
Penn State wins if…the ground game can get rolling. Penn State is averaging 197 yards rushing per game. Ohio State is sixth nationally against the run. The Nittany Lions will need to rush effectively, especially if Allar can’t go.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Ohio State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State
No. 13 Indiana at Michigan State
Saturday, November 2
12:30 pm PT, Peacock
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Indiana –7.5
Over/Under Point Total: 51.5
The Spartans seem to be improving each week and Indiana is coming off a pair of high-emotion games with Michigan on the schedule next week.
On the flip side, Indiana has yet to trail this season and be outscored in any of their 32 quarters.
I like an Indiana win, but the half-point could be sticky as MSU is 3-1 at home. I see it as a seven-point game…if you can get 6.5 or lower take it.
Having said that, Indiana has covered in six straight and probably will in this one too.
Indiana wins if…the defense continues to dominate. The Hoosiers’ offense struggled a bit against Washington last week and still got a comfortable 14-point win. The reason? A defense ranked fifth nationally creates a lot of matchup issues.
Michigan State wins if…they can stop Indiana’s rushing attack. Last week the Hoosiers wore down Washington and ran it down their throats.
The Spartans were good against Michigan’s rush attack last week, but this week they’ll have to stop the run while also worrying about the pass too.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Indiana
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Indiana
UCLA at Nebraska
Saturday, November 2
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Nebraska –6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 40.5
Both of those scenarios are getting old for the faithful in Lincoln.
The Bruins coming off a bye week after their best outing of the season, a 35-32 win at Rutgers.
UCLA wins if…Ethan Garbers carries the momentum from the last game. The win at Rutgers was the best game of the QBs career, throwing for 383, and connecting on 84% of his passes.
In the last two games, the Huskers have allowed 501 yards and an 80.4% completion rate.
Nebraska wins if…the Huskers avoid turnovers, specifically, Dylan Raiola. The freshman has thrown seven interceptions this season with five coming in the last three games. If he can take care of the football, Nebraska will be fine.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Nebraska
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Nebraska
No. 1 Oregon at Michigan
Saturday, November 2
12:30 pm PT, CBS
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon –14.5
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5
Michigan still looked like a team trying to find their way last week against MSU, although the Wolverines did show some heart and Moxey.
Oregon wins if…they can score 20 points. Michigan is not scoring more than 17 in this one, and that may even be a stretch. But since we want a key in this one, it’s offensive line play.
Michigan’s defense is still good, and the line gets after it. The Ducks can’t have the issue with sacks that plagued them the first few weeks of the season.
Michigan wins if…they can get something out of ther QB. Michigan desperately needs better play from that position. This week it is back to Davis Warren behind center. Will it make a difference? Probably not.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon
Wisconsin at Iowa
Saturday, November 2
4:30 pm PT, NBC
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa –3
Over/Under Point Total: 41.5
Iowa has won two straight and three of the last four in the series. The Hawkeyes are 27-10 in their last 37 rivalry-trophy games. Iowa is also 18-2 in their last 20 games in November.
Wisconsin wins if…they can shut down the running game. Iowa is averaging over 200 yards on the ground. In their two conference losses, they have been held to 124.5 on the ground. Limit the ground game and put it in a backup QB’s hand.
Iowa wins if…Brendan Sullivan can settle in at QB, and I think he will. In relief last week after Cade McNamara’s concussion, he led Iowa to 37 consecutive points against Northwestern. Having the nation’s second-leading rusher in Kaleb Johnson certainly helps.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Iowa
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Iowa
USC at Washington
Saturday, November 2
4:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: USC –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 55.5
The loser could have a difficult time getting to six wins and bowl eligibility.
That is especially true of the Huskies, who have trips to Penn State and Oregon among their final three games.
USC has a couple of rivalry road games with UCLA and Notre Dame following a visit from Nebraska.
USC wins if…Woody Marks has a big game. Last week the UW defense wore down in the second half and Indiana pounded them on the ground. Marks is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and could get hot in this one.
Washington wins if…Will Rogers can light it up. The Trojans have given up a ton of yards through the air. Last week Rutgers threw for 313. yards—122 more than they had been averaging per game. This could be a week for the Huskies’ air attack to shine.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: USC
Points total: Under
Outright winner: USC
Best Bet
Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois
Saturday, November 2
9:00 am PT, FS1
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Minnesota –3
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5
Illinois is at home, ranked, has three wins over ranked opponents. And Bret Bielema is 10-0 against Minnesota all-time. Logically, Minnesota, winner of three straight, is favored by three.
The line opened at 1.5 for the Gophers and has since grown…Something seems a miss.
I’ll take the points and Illinois at home all day.
Minnesota wins if…Max Brosmer continues to play well. The QB is completing a career-high 62% of his passes this season and seems to be getting better each week.
The Illini have been vulnerable against the pass this season so there could be plays to be made in the passing game for Minnesota.
Illinois wins if…they can get to the QB. As mentioned, the Illini have been susceptible to big plays in the passing game, but not when they are getting pressure.
Against Oregon and Purdue, they combined for just two sacks and both QBs picked them apart. In their six other games, they are averaging 3 sacks per game. Minnesota is allowing 2.1 sacks per game.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Illinois
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Illinois
Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks
|
2024 Week 10 Big 10 Games |
Straight-Up Picks |
| Northwestern at Purdue Nov 2, 9:00 am PT |
Northwestern |
| No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State Nov 2, 9:00 am PT |
Ohio State |
| Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois Nov 2, 9:00 am PT |
Illinois |
| No. 13 Indiana at Michigan State Nov 2, 12:30 pm PT |
Indiana |
| UCLA at Nebraska Nov 2, 12:30 pm PT |
Nebraska |
| No. 1 Oregon at Michigan Nov 2, 12:30 pm PT |
Oregon |
| Wisconsin at Iowa Nov 2, 4:30 pm PT |
Iowa |
| USC at Washington Nov 2, 4:30 pm PT |
USC |
| Vilardo’s Overall Big 10 Record | 59-20 (75%) |
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