By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
November 2, 2023
This week Air Force will step out of conference play to meet fellow service academy Army while San Jose State enjoys a second bye week of the season.
The big one in the conference is Boise State traveling to Fresno State, the winner most likely having the inside jump on a spot in the conference championship game.
As always, my assessments reflect last week’s results and are subject to change.
Below are my Week 10 Power Rankings along with previews of upcoming contests and my game picks.
1. Air Force Falcons (8-0, 5-0) ◄►
Colorado State Review
Air Force’s 8-0 record marks their first perfect start after eight games since opening 10-0 in 1985. The Falcons are 5-0 in Mountain West play for the first time ever.Dating to last season, Air Force has won 13 consecutive games, the fourth longest active streak in the nation, and tied for the longest unbeaten run in program history.
Colorado State gave the Falcons a game for the opening half before the Air Force defense locked things down.
Air Force scored the final 17 points of the game and outgained the Rams 191-113 after getting outgained 226-100 in the first half.
Army Preview
Saturday, November 4
11:30 am PT, CBS Sports
Air Force can lock up the Commander-In-Chief’s trophy with a win over Army. The Falcons are 12-1 in their last 13 non-conference games and have won nine in a row.
The last loss came at the hands of Army in 2021. The Black Knights have been dreadful against the run this season ranking 119th in the nation allowing 185.8 yards per game.
In their four games in the month of October, they were even worse, allowing 244.0 per game. The Falcons are the third-best team in the nation against the run.
Air Force should control both sides of the ball in this one.
My Pick: Air Force 24, Army 10
2. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1, 3-1) ▲1
UNLV Review
Fresno State got a big win at home over UNLV. It was the seventh straight victory for the Bulldogs over the Rebels and the eighth consecutive win at Valley Children’s Stadium.It was certainly a game of runs in the matchup with UNLV.
The ‘Dogs were outgained 129-23 in the second quarter but had a big third stanza in which they got the better of UNLV 24-0 on the scoreboard and 181-19 in offensive yardage.
Putting the game away in the fourth quarter proved to be problematic for Fresno State. The intensity the Bulldogs had in the third quarter will need to be matched the rest of the season.
Boise State Preview
Saturday, November 4
7:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
Fresno State and Boise State is always a big one. And it is once again this season as each team sits at 3-1 in the Conference and the winner will have the inside track to the MW title game.
This one seems a little different, though. The teams have met 23 times since 2001 and in 17 of them, at least one team was ranked—but we will not see a ranked team in this edition.
The Broncos are 1-3 on the road this season but the Bulldogs have not beaten BSU in Fresno since 2017.
The stats match up pretty evenly and third downs could be the difference maker. The Bulldogs are 10th in the nation in third down conversions at 50.0%, and BSU is 25th at 45.2%.
Defending third downs the Bulldogs have also been slightly better in 2023.
My Pick: Fresno State 27, Boise State 23
3. Boise State (4-4, 3-1) ▲3
Wyoming Review
Boise State’s defensive collapse against Colorado State is all that seperates Boise State from a 4-0 conference mark.Maddux Madsen was phenomenal against Wyoming as he finished the day 12-15 passing. Taylen Green completed three of his six passes and the two QB system seemed to have worked.
Having said that, this offense looks like it is going to be in the hands of Madsen. Over the last few weeks, he has been more efficient running things.
Green offers production in the run game and we will continue to see him utilized in that role with some passes in to keep the defense guessing.
The big improvement for the Broncos has been the run defense. After giving up 137.7 yards per game on the ground in the first six games of the season, the Broncos have allowed just 34.5 yards rushing in the last two outings.
Fresno State Preview
Saturday, November 4
7:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
Boise State has gotten back to .500 on the season and, at 3-1 in conference action, has everything to play for in this pivotal matchup with Fresno State.
The Broncos have only won once away from the Blue Turf this season and that was at San Diego State, a win that has not aged well.
The key has been the defense on the road. In four home games, the Broncos have allowed 313.5 yards of offense. In their three games away from Boise, that jumps to 464 yards per game.
BSU will need to correct that deficiency to fly home with a win on Saturday night. The Broncos will also need to get the Bulldogs off the field on third down.
My Pick: Fresno State 27, Boise State 23
4. UNLV Rebels (6-2, 3-1) ◄►
Fresno State Review
We knew the tail end of the schedule was going to ramp up a bit for UNLV and that started with a trip to Fresno State.The Rebels five-game winning streak may have ended but at 6-2, but it is still the best 8-game start for a UNLV squad since 1984.
The Rebels played well on the road and minus a rough third quarter had the run of most of the game. UNLV’s 23 rushing TDs are tied for the fourth most in the nation this season.
The schedule may get rough but it also provides an opportunity for UNLV to make some more noise. At 3-1, the Rebels could still create a path to the conference championship game.
New Mexico Preview
Saturday, November 4
3:00 pm PT, Mountain West Network
UNLV gets a slight breather this week before a rough three-game stretch to finish the regular season. UNLV has won eight of the last 11 of New Mexico and have won three straight in Albuquerque.
UNLV runs the ball well, 18th in the nation at 202.9 yards per game. New Mexico has struggled to stop teams from running it, ranking 100th in the nation. This one is set up for UNLV to roll to seven wins on the season. UNLV has not won seven games in a season since 2013.
My Pick: UNLV 42, New Mexico 26
5. Wyoming Cowboys (5-3, 2-2) ▼3
Boise State Review
Wyoming’s offense struggled to get anything going against Boise State. The 32-7 loss on the blue turf was a total beatdown by the Broncos.The Cowboys could only muster 112 total yards and just 27 yards on the ground. Their scoreless second half was just the second time this season that the Cowboys were shut out in a half.
Wyoming averaged just four plays per drive against the Broncos and went three-and-out on 4-of-12 possessions for the game. The lone TD drive of the game started at the BSU 19 and was a one-play affair.
Wyoming’s average third-down distance against Boise State was 11.3. It is hard to pick up conversions when you’re going backward on first and second down.
Colorado State Preview
Friday, November 3
5:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
The Cowboys get a chance to rebound quickly with a Friday night game against Colorado State in the 115th edition of The Border War.
The Bronze Boot will be the prize in this one and Wyoming has claimed it six of the last seven times the teams have met, including the last two.
More than just bragging rights are at stake. This is suddenly a key conference battle with a log jam of teams in the middle of the pack with two and three losses.
Wyoming will have to be able to run the ball against the Rams if they want a shot. CSU is 105th against the run and the Cowboys should be able to control the tempo of this one and get a win.
My Pick: Wyoming 23, Colorado State 17
6. San Jose State Spartans (4-5, 3-2) ▲1
Hawai’i Review
Things are starting to click for San Jose State.The 35-0 win over Hawai’i was the first shutout for the Spartans since 2013 when they beat Sacramento State in 2013 and the first shutout of an FBS opponent since a 12-0 win over Navy in 2012.
It was a dominant performance by San Jose State on both sides of the ball as they outgained Hawai’i 468 to 198. SJSU has outscored their opponents 80-14 combined in the second half of their last three games.
Bye Week Notes
San Jose State opened the season with a Week 0 loss to USC. The benefit of playing in that early matchup is a second bye week during the season.
SJSU will get a little rest before they try to get bowl-eligible with Fresno State, San Diego State, and UNLV to end the season.
San Jose State has a bye this week
7. Colorado State Rams (3-5, 1-3) ▼2
Air Force Review
Colorado State had a really good first half of football against Air Force and then a second half that was not one for the highlight reels.Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi turned in a quality game once again and the offense has been producing since he took over behind center.
Last week the redshirt freshman did a nice job of distributing things in less than ideal weather conditions.
Four receivers caught at least five passes with Justus Ross-Simmons catching eight balls for 128 yards on 13 targets.
If he can emerge as another threat in the offense behind Tory Horton, this offense will be even more difficult to defend down the stretch.
Wyoming Preview
Friday, November 3
5:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
Last week it was an in-state rivalry, this week it is the Border War. The Rams will need to stop the run attack against Wyoming, something that led Boise State to a win over the Cowboys last week.
In their five wins this season, Wyoming has averaged 177.4 yards on the ground, in the three losses it is just 97 yards rushing per game.
The question will be if the Rams will be able to contain UW. I think it will be a close one, but the Cowboys have the edge in Laramie.
My Pick: Wyoming 23, Colorado State 17
8. Utah State Aggies (3-5, 1-3) ◄►
Bye Week Review
Utah State comes out of their bye week and hopes to be ready to go. The Aggies have been outscored 105-17 in the opening quarter this season.The big holes have been too much to overcome in many games. USU has outscored its opponents by 98 points in the final three quarters this season.
San Diego State Preview
Saturday, November 4
4:00 pm PT, FS2
The Aggies will head to San Diego State for Game Nine of the season. Both teams are coming off a bye so no added rest advantage in either case.
Both teams also have identical 3-5 marks on the season and 1-3 conference records. The one thing Utah State has that San Diego State is lacking is an offense.
The Aggies are averaging 451.1 yards per game this season, the 23rd-best in the nation. The Aztecs rank 114th in the nation with 317.5 yards of offense.
Neither team has been very adept at stopping opponent offenses this season, but the Aggies should have the edge in this one.
My Pick: Utah State 33, San Diego State 17
9. Nevada Wolf Pack (2-6, 2-2) ▲2
New Mexico Review
Nevada has got a win streak going. Their 16-game losing streak has given way to two in a row.The Wolf Pack stormed out to a 24-0 halftime lead and held on to beat New Mexico. They were outgained by the Lobos but won the turnover battle 3-0.
Hawai’i Preview
Saturday, November 4
1:00 pm PT, Spectrum Sports
Nevada will look to make it three in a row against Hawai’i and this is one that they could win.
The Rainbow Warriors are not playing well the last few weeks and the Wolf Pack is as hot as they have been in a while.
The Pack will look to win three straight conference games for the first time since 2020.
My Pick: Nevada 26, Hawai’i 20
10. New Mexico Lobos (3-5, 1-3) ▼1
Nevada Review
New Mexico’s win streak did not last very long.The Lobos fell behind 24-0 at the half to Nevada and could not come back in Reno. New Mexico has never won in Reno, falling to 0-4-1 when playing at the Wolf Pack.
UNLV Preview
Saturday, November 4
3:00 pm PT, Mountain West Network
The Lobos will have the Silver State back-to-back UNLV coming to town following the trip to Nevada.
UNLV is a hot team and the Rebels have had the edge over New Mexico the last few times they have met in Albuquerque.
The Rebels also run the ball well and New Mexico struggles to stop the run. This could be a long game for the Lobos.
My Pick: UNLV 42, New Mexico 26
11. San Diego State Aztecs (3-5, 1-3) ▼1
Nevada Review
The Aztecs hit close to rock bottom two weeks ago with a 6-0 loss at the hands of Nevada.San Deigo State ran 31 plays in plus territory against the Wolf Pack and came away with no scores.
The Aztec offense has been terrible so far this season and they need to start moving the football if they want to turn things around.
Utah State Preview
Saturday, November 4
4:00 pm PT, FS2
San Diego State and Utah State are both coming off byes. Both defenses have struggled at times this season, but Utah State has played much better on offense.
The Aggies are the better team right now and should get the win.
My Pick: Utah State 33, San Diego State 17
12. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (2-7, 0-4) ◄►
San Jose State Review
I keep thinking Hawai’i is a much better team this season than last year, and I think I am finally ready to admit I may have seen more progress than there was.Against San Jose State it started with a UH miscue on the opening kick and never got any better. Last week Hawai’i was shut out for the first time since 2017 and for the first time at home since 1998.
It was not just issues on offense against the Spartans. The UH defense allowed SJSU to convert 10-of-11 third downs in the first half.
Nevada Preview
Saturday, November 4
1:00 pm PT, Spectrum Sports
A few weeks ago, I would have figured on a runaway win for Hawai’i. The last two outings have me doubting that.
Hawai’i has an offense that is good enough to put up points on Nevada, but it also should not have been shut out at home by San Jose State.
Hawai’i has lost 10 straight road games, the third longest streak in the nation and I think it is extended this week.
My Pick: Nevada 26, Hawai’i 20
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