By Dane Miller, SuperWest Sports
March 20, 2025
This matchup in Denver is a trendy upset pick, with Michigan favored by a slim 2.5-point margin. And with good reason.
In its first season since transitioning from Division II to Division I, UC San Diego not only won the Big West—finishing on a 15-game winning streak—but also earned its first trip to the NCAA Tournament.
It’s an impressive story, worthy of a Cinderella ending. But I am not buying.
No. 12 UC San Diego vs No. 5 Michigan
Thursday, March 20
7:00 pm PT, TBS
South Region, Denver
But Michigan is a strong shot-blocking team, shares the ball on offense, and is a borderline elite rebounding group.
KenPom has the Wolverine defense at No. 13 nationally, and they run a much quicker tempo than UC San Diego.
If Michigan plays the game at its desired pace, its defensive strength and rebounding should shine through.
The X-Factor, however, is turnovers.
The Tritons are the No. 8 team in the country in turnovers forced per game while the Wolverines are No. 334 in turnovers committed per contest.
That creates some analytical tension that arguably favors UC San Diego.
If Michigan runs a high pace while turning the ball over excessively, the Tritons will have more opportunities to score.
And considering that UC San Diego is No. 54 nationally in three-point percentage, it’s no wonder that so many people are taking the Tritons to win.
-
Dane Miller’s Too-Early Best-in-West Hoops Power Rankings
> How the region's best teams stack up across the Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, MW, Pac-12, and WCC - April 27, 2026 -
Final Four: Rebounds, Steals Key for Arizona vs. Michigan
> Dane Miller explains what the Wildcats must do to play in the National Championship Game - April 3, 2026 -
Miller: This Time, Tucson Gets the Final Four it Deserves
> A highly opinionated preview of Arizona's Elite 8 matchup with Purdue tonight in San Jose - March 28, 2026