January 7, 2026
By Alex Kirshner, Opta Analyst: The two College Football Playoff semifinal games have different shapes.
The Miami-Ole Miss matchup is one in which the teams’ strengths counteract each other. The thing Miami is best at? Ole Miss is really good at making that not matter. The thing Ole Miss is best at? Well, scoring points ain’t easy against edge rushers who will rip your QB’s head off.
Indiana-Oregon is a little bit less specific. Both of these teams are good at pretty much everything, giving this one a real “unstoppable force meets immovable object” feel no matter which team has the ball.
This will be fun. Let’s go through both semifinals, including the Opta supercomputer’s win probabilities for each showdown.
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