Syracuse vs. Oregon

Sunday, December 17
10:00 am PT, CBS Sports Network

The ACC team doesn’t have a signature win this season, but the Orange do have a blowout victory over LSU and a 12-point win over rival Georgetown.

Led by guard Judah Mintz, Syracuse has three players (Mintz, Chris Bell, and J.J. Starling) averaging in double-figures and most of the minutes are concentrated among three guards and one forward.

Naheem McLeod is the lone center that sees regular playing time.

Checking in at 7-foot-4 and 265 pounds, the sophomore is averaging two blocks per game and is one of the primary reasons why Syracuse is the No. 25 shot-blocking team in the country.

But McLeod only averages 15.9 minutes per night and just 4.9 ppg.

In other words, Oregon is not as exposed in the interior as it might otherwise be considering the injuries to N’Faly Dante and Nate Bittle.

Instead, ‘Cuse runs its offense through guards with respectable height and a 6-foot-7 forward (Bell) who averages 7.6 three-point attempts per game.

That should play into the hands of Oregon’s personnel.

From an analytics standpoint, the Ducks have the upper hand in points per game, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, assists per game, and turnovers per night.

Those are key advantages that tend to indicate an impending victory.

Combined with the favorable personnel matchup and the guard-based nature of Syracuse, the Ducks should find a way to win.

USC at Auburn

Sunday, December 17
10:00 am PT, ESPN

The Tigers lost their opener to Baylor and then rattled off five-straight wins before dropping a game to Appalachian State. Despite that poor loss, Auburn has blowout wins over Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Indiana.

Averaging 82.3 points per game, the Tigers are No. 46 nationally in scoring offense and 18th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric.

They share the ball at a very high rate, rebound the ball efficiently, and limit turnovers at an elite level.Head coach Bruce Pearl will legitimately go 10-deep into his rotation with seven players averaging 7.0 points or more.

In other words, this is a dangerous SEC team that has the potential to put up a ton of points.

To get the job done on the road, Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier have to combine to shoot at least 50 percent from the floor.

In USC’s four losses, the duo is a combined 43-for-106 (40.5 percent) while in the wins they are a combined 66-for-120 (55.0 percent).

That makes the receipt to beat USC simple: force Ellis and Collier to have inefficient days from the field.

Ellis takes an average of 15.1 shots per game while Collier puts up 11.7. Only Kobe Johnson comes close with the guard/wing hybrid averaging 9.9 shots per night.

Said another way, the offense entirely runs through Ellis and Collier.

Both are high-volume shooters that determine USC’s fortunes. Andy Enfield’s team can’t overcome inefficient days from them, due to the number of shots they put up.

That’s a problem facing Auburn. KenPom puts the Tigers at No. 12 in his defensive efficiency metric and Pearl has the height on the perimeter to make it a long game for the USC guards.

It’s not a favorable matchup on paper.

But with two high-volume shooters, an especially hot day from them could be enough to secure the upset on the road.

Dane Miller’s Game Picks

Game	Pick
Oregon vs. Syracuse	Oregon
USC at Auburn	Auburn