Posted on October 6, 2023
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Week Six in the Pac-12 features a slate of interesting matchups.
At first blush, the four games on Saturday may seem somewhat underwhelming. But, each has a degree of upset potential to it.
The day starts with the Cougars taking on the Bruins in Pasadena and ends with the Wildcats kicking off against the Trojans in Los Angeles.
I preview each game across the league here and the picks of our writers and broadcasters appear at the bottom.
No. 13 Washington State at UCLA
Saturday, October 7
Noon, Pac-12 Network
That, or they are highly confident in UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn.
To be fair, Lynn has displayed a masterclass on defense in his first season as a coordinator. But the Bruins have faced just one Power 5 team this year and that was the feckless Utah offense.
Arbuckle’s pass-heavy scheme is an entirely different animal.
Washington State enters the game fifth in the nation in points per game and fifth in passing efficiency. The passing efficiency number, in particular, is impressive considering Arbuckle’s offense averages 39 throws per contest.
In other words, the Wazzu passing plays are able to gash opponents down field with consistency.
Without a doubt, the Cougar offensive scheme is the toughest UCLA has faced to date.
The key to the game figures to come down to Chip Kelly’s offense. Dante Moore crippled under pressure in Salt Lake City and Jake Dickert is a known defensive mastermind.
It’s a safe bet to assume the WSU defensive game plan begins with blitzing and ends with blitzing.
Still, if the UCLA running backs can consistently bust quality runs, Dickert might be forced to adjust.
When it’s all said and done, an efficient game from Dante’s backfield might be enough to carry the day for the Bruins. But only if Lynn is able to contain Arbuckle’s prolific offense.
Colorado at Arizona State
Saturday, October 7
3:30 pm PT, Pac-12 Network
The Sun Devils’ season has been derailed by a plethora of injuries to both sides of the ball. The offensive line has substantial issues, an expected star at wide receiver has yet to see the field this season, and its top two quarterbacks have been hurt.
But, the Football Gods don’t care and there’s no immediate fix in sight.
One area Kenny Dillingham does have going for him, though, is a strong defensive line. B.J. Green and Dashaun Mallory have been dominant at their positions through the early part of the season.
Defensive coordinator Brian Ward has maximized the situation, leading Arizona State to a respectable No. 38 nationally in sacks per game.
That should bode well facing a Colorado offensive line that is among the worst in the nation.
Still, the Sun Devils will be without key linebacker Tre Brown. Ward’s defense was already worryingly sparse on productive linebackers and Brown is fourth on the team in tackles and tackles for loss.
The Buffaloes’ ability to run the ball could be a deciding factor. Colorado posted a season-high 193 yards rushing against USC last Saturday and was able to nearly pull off the comeback.
Sean Lewis’s offense is more effective with a better ground game, although Shedeur Sanders has been able to mask that issue with elite quarterback play.
As long as the CU quarterback plays sharp like he has been all season, the Buffs should get the job done on the road.
No. 15 Oregon State at California
Saturday, October 7
7:00 pm PT, Pac-12 Network
California has a respectable defense and an elite ground game. If not for the poor quarterback play, the Bears would be in serious consideration to post an upset against Jonathan Smith’s team.
But, with the situation under center that Justin Wilcox is dealing with, it’s hard to realistically project Cal to secure the upset.
That being said, this game figures to be closer than many expect.
Wilcox has one of the top secondaries in the Pac-12 and fields the nation’s No. 23 rushing defense.
The Beavers, however, are even stronger at defending the run. Smith’s team is No. 4 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game, presenting a direct threat to the heart of California’s offense.
If OSU is able to stifle the trio of Jaydn Ott, Isaiah Ifanse, and Ashton Stredick, the Bears will be in for a painfully long game.
On the other side of the ball, the key to toppling the Beavs is getting them out of their running tendencies. The passing game is mostly predicated on playaction passing and Smith is otherwise content to pound the ball.
Cal defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon could sell out to defend the run and dare DJ Uiagalelei to beat them with his arm. If Sirmon is able to successfully force OSU to pass the ball more often, the Cal secondary could make game-changing plays.
Still, unless the California quarterbacks punch above their weight, the Beavers should find a way to get the job done.
Arizona at No. 9 USC
Saturday, October 7
7:30 pm PT, ESPN
The status of Jayden de Laura remains unclear and it might be safe to assume redshirt freshman Noah Fifita gets the second start of his career.
The availability of starting Arizona running back Michael Wiley is unknown, too. The two players are pivotal to Jedd Fisch’s offense.
If they can’t go, the Wildcats will be in a tough spot.
Still, 13 of the last 16 games in the series have been decided by a single possession, including all of the last three since 2020. In other words, Arizona always plays USC close.
And with a substantially improved Wildcat defense, it’s fair to expect more of the same.
Arizona’s run defense is No. 22 in the nation and the Cats are No. 26 in tackles for loss per game. If Johnny Nansen can scheme up a way to slow down the Trojans like he did against the Huskies, UA might have a small chance of securing the shocking upset.
That seems unlikely, though. For all the bad rap that Alex Grinch receives, his defense is first nationally in tackles for loss per game and tied for sixth in sacks per game.
Those numbers are gaudy for a freshman potentially making the first road start of his career. Look for USC to be aggressive and bring pressure throughout the game.
Unless the Arizona running backs are able to establish a consistent ground game, Fisch’s offense could stall out and struggle to score.
Game Picks from Our Senior Writers and Broadcasters
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