Posted on November 6, 2020
|
Ahhhhhh.
Pac-12 football is finally back.
We spent a lot of time this offseason talking about why 2020 is such a promising season for USC—the wide receivers, the new defensive coaching staff, some guy named Kedon.
We get it. USC can be good.
In the spirit of 2020, though, let’s take a look at the things that can possibly go wrong.
That’s right, USC might not win the Pac-12. Hell, it might not win the Pac-12 South. That would certainly be an unmitigated disaster, but I’m a junior at USC, so I haven’t seen anything that doesn’t either fit or approach that descriptor in my brief tenure here—thus, I must consider the possibility.
If the Trojans fall short this year, here are the most likely reasons they’ll do so.
The defensive improvement is marginal
Speaking of unmitigated disasters, remember Clancy Pendergast?
There’s absolutely no question that firing Pendergast was the right move after last season, and for defensive coordinator Todd Orlando, the only possible direction is up.
But what if it’s not “up” enough?
Orlando has a reputation for making quick turnarounds, but he’s also coming fresh off a season at Texas in which the Longhorns’ defense allowed the fourth-most—out of 130 schools—passing yards per game in the country. The group was inexperienced, lacked USC’s talent and was plagued with injuries, but it’s hard to completely overlook those numbers regardless.
What if the lack of a spring camp and a start-and-stop, awkward fall camp doesn’t give the group enough time to implement Orlando’s 3-4 scheme? Is the linebacker group deep enough? Can the Trojans overcome the loss of Jay Tufele on the defensive line? Will the secondary be more disciplined than it was last year?
Can the team alleviate all these concerns for all six games, then hold up against Oregon in a potential championship?
All remains to be seen. I don’t think the improvements will be marginal. But there are a few questions to be answered—not just in Week 1 but beyond—and if the defense takes a stride that’s anything less than significant, the Trojans could be in trouble.
The offense becomes too predictable
Let me get this out of the way: I don’t actually think this will happen either. I trust offensive coordinator Graham Harrell enough to know that you need a competent and established running game in order to open up the rest of the offense.
Still, I’ve heard Harrell say he’s going to “stick to what they do best” enough times this offseason and in training camp to make me think. What does that mean? Is the offense going to become one-dimensional?
No matter how good Kedon Slovis is, no matter how good the wide receivers are, if USC proves it won’t utilize its running backs, it won’t be that hard to neutralize the most important facet of the Trojans’ game.
In a normal year, this wouldn’t be a huge problem—if Harrell isn’t imaginative enough and the Trojans drop a game against a well-prepared defense, he simply corrects himself and everyone lives happily ever after.
But this year, it’ll only take one prepared defense or one off day from Slovis to effectively end the Trojans’ Pac-12 title hopes, if Harrell doesn’t balance the attack.
But here’s betting he does, if only because the Trojans simply can’t afford to let the strength of their receiving corps backfire.
Kedon Slovis—God forbid—gets injured
IIs this a cop-out? Maybe.
But it’s also the single thing that could wield the most influence in ruining USC’s season. I’ve written about this before: USC’s quarterback depth, or lack thereof, is an underlooked storyline heading into 2020. Beyond Slovis, it’s thin, and the injury to JT Daniels last season showed how important a strong backup can be.
In the end, everything about USC’s offensive attack comes back to Slovis. The wide receivers won’t produce at elite levels without him, and sloppy quarterback play would take away a real, reliable aerial attack, effectively shutting down the ground game as well.
A Slovis injury would, of course, be an entirely random occurrence, but the catastrophic impact it would have on this team makes it worth mentioning.
However, each of these three potential troubles for the Trojans feels unlikely — and if they can avoid all of them, a Pac-12 Championship should be more than attainable.
You can watch Ackerman’s companion Trojan Dash Sports Talk Show on Dash Sports TV, and read his other work at the Daily Trojan.
-
Ackerman: USC was right to opt out of a bowl game
Turning down an Alamo Bowl bid wasn't quitting; it just wasn’t worth it - December 21, 2020 -
Ackerman: In the End, USC’s Playmakers Made Plays Again
The Trojans’ talent bailed out questionable coaching decisions on Saturday - December 13, 2020 -
Ackerman: Fired-Up USC has ‘the Juice’
The Trojans’ energy in Week 5 showed they want the smoke of whatever comes their way - December 8, 2020