No. 20 UNLV at No. 10 Boise State

Friday, December 6th
5:00 pm PT, FOX

FOX Broadcast Crew: Jason Benetti, Brock Huard, and Allison Williams

Line: Boise State -4
Over/Under Point Total: 58.5

For UNLV, it is not as familiar a setting as the Rebels are playing in only their second title game.

At 10-2, UNLV has reached double-digit wins for just the third time in program history and first time since 1984.

The lone trip to the conference championship game is fresh however as this is a rematch of the game played a year ago in Las Vegas with Boise State getting the win.

The Broncos are on a 10-game winning streak, the second-longest active streak in the country. They also have won their last 11 games at Albertsons Stadium, the fifth-longest active home winning streak in America.

While BSU has not lost in the last few weeks, the Broncos have looked vulnerable at times.

UNLV enters the contest having won four in a row since their loss to Boise State. The Rebels are 6-0 on the road this season and have won their last eight games played on opponents’ turf—the third longest active road win streak in the nation.

Offensively both teams are led by players capable of putting up huge games.

Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has been a monster in the Rebels’ up-tempo offense, getting things done with his arm and his legs.

Boise State Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty has lived up to the hype and then some this season.

The most recent meeting between the two teams came in Week 9, a 29-24 win in Vegas for the Broncos.

The Rebels rank fifth nationally in turnover margin at +1.17 per game. In the October 25th matchup, UNLV turned it over once, the only turnover of the game and the only time all season that the Rebels have had a negative turnover margin.

In the first meeting this season, Boise State recorded six sacks of Williams, and that was a problem for UNLV.

Other than the sacks, the Rebels and Williams were able to move the football. The QB finished the day with 105 yards rushing and threw for 179.

Ashton Jeanty was limited to just 3.88 yards per carry, well below the 7.74 yards average he has run for in the 11 other games.

And that brings us to the keys in this one…

UNLV wins if…the Rebels can limit the sacks and stay ahead of the chains. They were 5/13 on third-down conversions in the first meeting and the average distance to gain on their 13 third downs was 8.6 yards to gain.

Boise State wins if…Maddux Madsen can move the ball through the air. The UNLV pass defense has been shaky this season. Much like the first meeting, I’d expect the Rebels to try and take away the rushing lanes for Jeanty.

That should open things up in the passing game. Also, the easiest way to create room to run the ball is to beat them with the pass a few times.

Most importantly for both teams: Don’t turn it over!

This one stays tight but I like the home team to cover the four at the end.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Boise State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Boise State