Top Games

Southern Utah at No. 12 Utah

Thursday, Aug. 29
6:00 pm PT, ESPN+

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Utah -39.5

What’s at Stake: The Utes start their 2024 season with an easy in-state opponent. All that matters from this game is that Cam Rising and the rest of the players stay healthy.

Kyle Whittingham might take out his starters early in the second half as a result.

Why Southern Utah Wins: The Thunderbirds take advantage of a Utah team that is overlooking them by forcing multiple turnovers in the first half.

Why Utah Wins: The Utes keep the gameplan simple with a mix of a traditional ground game under center and throws out of shotgun to score multiple times in the first quarter.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Southern Utah
Straight Up: Utah

No. 8 Penn State at West Virginia

Saturday, Aug. 31
9:00 am PT, Fox

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Penn State -8.5

What’s at Stake: It’s Fox’s Big Noon game with conference reputations on the line.

A victory by West Virginia would be a major coup for the Big 12 while a Penn State win would create a measuring stick to gauge the Big Ten.

The Nittany Lions tend to fail to deliver in big moments and the country is watching.

Why Penn State Wins: The Nittany Lion’s defense contains West Virginia’s running backs and quarterback runs to force the offense to be one-dimensional through the air.

Why West Virginia Wins: The Mountaineers’ ground game has success early in the game which opens the field for chunk plays in the passing game.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: West Virginia Covers
Straight Up: Penn State

North Dakota at Iowa State

Saturday, Aug. 31
12:30 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa State -27.5

What’s at Stake: Unlike their regional brethren, North Dakota is not viewed as a powerhouse FCS program in 2024.

The Fighting Hawks are only No. 22 in the FCS Coaches Poll after finishing last season 7-5 with a loss in the First Round of the FCS Playoffs.

Any struggles from Iowa State would be viewed as a red flag.

Why North Dakota State Wins: The Fighting Hawks keep the game close into the second half by getting third-down stops on the ground.

Why Iowa State Wins: Early defensive stops are converted into scores and the game gets out of hand by halftime.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Iowa State 
Straight Up: Iowa State

Southern Illinois at BYU

Saturday, Aug. 31
5:00 pm PT, ESPN+

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: BYU -19.5

What’s at Stake: BYU enters its second year in the Big 12 needing to show improvement.

The jump up in competition will take time to overcome and Year Two is when the results should begin to show.

Anything less than a comfortable Cougar win over the No. 11 team in the FCS Coaches Poll would be a concern.

Why Southern Illinois Wins: The Salukis handle the altitude and home crowd by limiting turnovers and penalties while keeping BYU out of the Red Zone.

Why BYU Wins: The Cougars wear down Southern Illinois in the second half with a consistent ground game and by being more physical in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: BYU 
Straight Up: BYU

New Mexico at No. 21 Arizona

Saturday, Aug. 31
7:30 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Arizona -31.5

What’s at Stake: Brent Brennan makes his debut with Arizona coming off one of its best seasons in program history.

Looking to win the Big 12 and make the Playoff, the matchup with New Mexico presents an opportunity to make a statement.

The game should show just how effective the UA staff was in getting quality players out of the portal over the offseason.

Why New Mexico Wins: The Lobos force Arizona into punts early in the game while limiting the Wildcats to field goal attempts when they cross midfield.

Why Arizona Wins: The Wildcats’ ground game busts chunk plays while Noah Fifita picks and chooses his throws for first downs through the air.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Arizona 
Straight Up: Arizona

Best Bets

North Dakota State at Colorado

Thursday, Aug. 29
5:00 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado -10.5

What’s at Stake: Reputations are on the line against North Dakota State. Imagine the social media reaction if Colorado loses this game. The lights are shining, it’s time to deliver.

Why North Dakota State Wins: The Bison get pressure on Shedeur Sanders to force sacks, poor throws, and make Colorado rely on its run game.

Why Colorado Wins: The Buffs use their superior speed and decision-making to go on several early touchdown drives and the defense plays with energy to generate stops.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Colorado 
Straight Up: Colorado

South Dakota State at No. 17 Oklahoma State

Saturday, Aug. 31
11:00 am PT, ESPN+

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oklahoma State -9.5

What’s at Stake: One of the favorites to win the Big 12 and make the Playoff, Oklahoma State faces an early test from a high-caliber FCS opponent.

Ranked No. 1 in the FCS Coaches Poll, South Dakota State is legitimate. The Jackrabbits have won back-to-back FCS National Championships over the last two years.

Why South Dakota State Wins: The FCS powerhouse forces Alan Bowman into interceptions while the front seven keeps Ollie Gordon reasonably contained.

Why Oklahoma State Wins: The home crowd provides the energy for a quick score to start the game and defensive stops throughout the night.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Oklahoma State
Straight Up: Oklahoma State

TCU at Stanford

Friday, Aug. 30
7:30 pm PT, ESPN

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: TCU -9.5

What’s at Stake: Troy Taylor is trying to rebuild Stanford’s program and needs a signature win.

Sonny Dykes, on the other hand, is looking to get back to the top after the program took a step back last season.

With a much better NIL program and transfers abounding, TCU should make a statement.

Why TCU Wins: The Horned Frogs win the one-on-one battles at multiple position groups on both sides of the ball.

It becomes obvious by the end of the first half that Stanford doesn’t have the personnel to compete.

Why Stanford Wins: The Tree win the turnover margin and keep TCU from scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone.

—My Picks—
Against the Spread: TCU
Straight Up: TCU

UNLV at Houston

Saturday, Aug. 31
4:00 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Houston -1.5

What’s at Stake: There are a lot of eyes on UNLV to start the year.

As one of the favorites to win the Mountain West and returning key players on both sides of the ball, the Rebels are a team to watch.

A victory over Houston would send a statement to the college football world.

Why UNLV Wins: Wide receivers Ricky White III and Jacob de Jesus go off on the Houston secondary while Jackson Woodard makes plays all game at linebacker.

Why Houston Wins: The Cougars get consistent pressure on UNLV’s quarterback to prevent the passing game from getting into a rhythm.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: UNLV
Straight Up: UNLV

Wyoming at Arizona State

Saturday, Aug. 31
7:30 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Arizona State -7

What’s at Stake: Kenny Dillingham and Arizona State aren’t getting any respect.

Coming off their worst two-year stretch in program history, the Sun Devils must prove they are better than last year. A convincing win over Wyoming would be a solid first step.

Why ASU Wins: Sam Leavitt operates the offense with efficiency and precision to lead the Sun Devils on pivotal scoring drives in both halves.

Why Wyoming Wins: The Cowboy’s front seven contains Cam Skattebo and gets pressure on Sam Leavitt to disrupt the timing with his receivers.

—My Picks—
Against Spread: Arizona State
Straight Up: Arizona State

Dane Miller’s Big 12 Game Picks

2024 Week 1 Big 12 Games	Straight-Up Picks
Southern Utah at No. 12 Utah Aug 29, 6:00 pm PT	Utah
No. 8 Penn State at West Virginia Aug 31, 9:00 am PT	Penn State
North Dakota at Iowa State Aug 31, 12:30 pm PT	Iowa State
Southern Illinois at BYU Aug 31, 5:00 pm PT	BYU
New Mexico at No. 21 Arizona Aug 31, 7:30 pm PT	Arizona
North Dakota State at Colorado Aug 29, 5:00 pm PT	Colorado
South Dakota State at Oklahoma State Aug 31, 11:00 am PT	Oklahoma State
TCU at Stanford Aug 30, 7:30 pm PT	TCU
UNLV at Houston Aug 31, 4:00 pm PT	UNLV
Wyoming at Arizona State Aug 31, 7:30 pm PT	Arizona State
Miller’s Overall Big 12 Record	0-0 (0%)